Russia at one time had signed a contract with Iran on the S-300 missiles and never delivered. -------------------------------------------------------------- Syria Analysis: The Wider Politics of the "Russian S-300 Missiles to Damascus"<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/29/syria-analysis-the-wider-politics-of-the-russian-s-300-missi.html>
Wednesday, May 29, 2013 at 8:34 | [image: Author]Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in [image: Category]EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey>, [image: Category]Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> Amid stalemate on the military front and on proposals for an international "peace" conference, Tuesday was marked by confusion over the Russian response to the European Union's lifting of an arms embargo on the insurgency. Framing a statement by the Deputy Foreign Minister, Russia Today headlined that Moscow was sending S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems --- agreed under a contract signed before the Syrian conflict --- to Damascus. However, the Russian news agency Interfax, quoting the Minister, said only that "weapons systems" were being delivered. Moreover, neither story could establish if the arms were already in the hands of the Syrian regime or if the Minister was merely saying they would be sent at some point in the future. The episode is part of the ongoing political struggle over Russia's support for President Assad, including the rejection of any demand that he step down for a political transition. Officials from the "West" --- notably the US and Britain, accompanied by statements from Israel --- have put out statements for weeks denouncing the supposed Russian plan to send S-300s. Those stories took on wider meaning on Tuesday with the European Union's decision not to renew the arms embargo, effectively allowing countries like Britain and France to openly supply the opposition. The US-led campaign over the S-300s, anticipating that move, is meant to box in the Russians. Either Moscow backs away from advanced weapons to Damascus --- even as the "West" ramps up its support of insurgents --- or Russia fulfils the narrative of its malevolent, destructive provision of the arms to Assad. That in turn has been linked to the political pressure on Russia to withdraw its insistence of no pre-condition --- i.e., the departure of President Assad --- for an international conference in June. Until yesterday, Moscow had knocked back the American and British eforts, including visits to President Putin by Secretary of State John Kerry and Prime Minister David Cameron, by standing firm over the conference --- putting its own condition that Iran, a key supporter of the Syrian regime, be allowed to attend --- and maintaining ambiguity over the arms supplies. However, Tuesday's flutter raised a question: had the European decision shaken Moscow? Or are the Russians continuing to unsettle the "West" with deliberate confusion? We choose the latter for two reasons. Russia answered the Western pressure with the clear signal that it will continue to provide weapons to the "legitimate" authority in Syria. In so doing, it was sending another message: if you want to have an international "peace" conference, that "legitimate" regime will have to be allowed at the table with no pre-conditions on its participation. Yet, at the same time, Moscow was not going to wear the villain's mantle designed for it by the "West", but was going to maintain plausible deniability. Th message: * * *Maybe we are supplying S-300s under an old contract, maybe we are not --- you keep trying to figure it out. * *Meanwhile, your move, Washington. Your move, London. Are you really going to pour in more weapons to the insurgency, even as you criticise us for supplying our own to the "legitimate" leaders of Syria?* -------------------------------------------------------------- Syria Today: Political "Chicken" and the Russian Missiles<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/29/syria-today-political-chicken-and-the-russian-missiles.html> Wednesday, May 29, 2013 at 8:48 | [image: Author]Scott Lucas<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/author/scott-lucas> in [image: Category]EA Live<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-live>, [image: Category]EA Middle East and Turkey<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/ea-middle-east-and-turkey>, [image: Category]Middle East and Iran<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/category/middle-east-and-iran> Bashar al-Assad & Vladimir Putin*International politics took over the headlines on Tuesday, with Russia putting out a response to the European Union's lifting of the arms embargo on the insurgency.* * Moscow issued a statement that, defying Western pressure, it is sending "weapons systems" to Damascus to prevent "hotheads" taking over the conflict --- a reference to the European decision. There was confusion, however, over whether Russia was declaring the provision of S-300 missile systems to Syria. We look even wider in an analysis<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/29/syria-analysis-the-wider-politics-of-the-russian-s-300-missi.html>; has Moscow been unsettled and contained by Western pressure? Or, through deliberate ambiguity, is it successfully rebuffing the US-led demands that it step away from President Assad? * ------------------------------ *Syrian National Coalition: No Part in Conference Without Assad Exit* The opposition Syrian National Coalition has officially confirmed<http://www.trust.org/item/20130529165340-km83q/>that it will not participate in a proposed international "peace" conference in Geneva next month without a guarantee that President Assad will leave power. The committee adopted a declaration amid a week-long meeting in Turkey, "The participation of the Syrians in any conference is tied to the presentation of a deadline for a solution and giving the necessary binding international guarantees." *Regime Admits Near-Complete Cut-Off of Oil Production* Minister of Oil Suleiman Abbas has told Parliament<http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/syrian-minister-says-oil-production-has-fallen-to-some-5-percent-of-pre-war-levels/2013/05/29/487e6fee-c84c-11e2-9cd9-3b9a22a4000a_story.html>that production has fallen almost 95% since the start of the conflict. # Abbas said daily oil production was now 20,000 barrels, compared to 380,000 barrels in March 2011. Insurgents have captured most of the country's oilfields, mainly in the north and east. *More on "White House Asks for Plans for No-Fly Zones"* The Obama Administration is damping down<http://www.politico.com/morningdefense/>the story, put out by two of its officials via reporter Josh Rogin --- see earlier entry<http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2013/5/29/syria-today-political-chicken-and-the-russian-missiles.html#US>--- that it has called on agencies to draw up plans for a no-fly zone inside Syria. There is no new military planning effort underway with regard to Syria, Pentagon press secretary George Little said. National Security Council spokeswoman Caitlin Hayden neither confirmed nor denied the initial story: Im not going to discuss our internal deliberations, but we have said for many months that the administration is prepared for a variety of contingencies in Syria and all options are on the table." ------------------------ History will not look kindly on a Left that ignored massacre after massacre with the glibbest of reasons #Syria<https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Syria&s=hash> #Houla <https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Houla&s=hash> #Homs<https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Homs&s=hash> #Bayda <https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Bayda&s=hash> #Baniyas<https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=Baniyas&s=hash> [image: Clay Claiborne] <https://mobile.twitter.com/clayclai?p=i> *Clay Claiborne* @clayclai <https://mobile.twitter.com/clayclai?p=s> Tracking a rumor: Is there a sugar factory in Syria being used as a rape house? | Women Under Siege Project: womenundersiegeproject.org/blog/entry/tra <http://t.co/YIxZCMHqO1> ---------------------------------------- [image: Nasrallah answers takes orders from no one but …. Iran.] Nasrallah answers takes orders from no one but . Iran. http://www.therevoltingsyrian.com/post/51653251401/nasrallah-answers-takes-orders-from-no-one-but <http://www.therevoltingsyrian.com/post/51653251401/nasrallah-answers-takes-orders-from-no-one-but> The Syrian political opposition, in its current form, is a hopeless case. Members of the opposition have been holding intensive talks to expand the National Coalition for nearly a week, with little progress. The meetings in Istanbul are meant to discuss the inclusion of more members, mostly moderates, in the coalition to make it a more representative and balanced political body. As it stands now, the political body is controlled by one group that has a tenacious monopoly over the decision-making process. On Monday, the coalitions general assembly announced that eight new members have been added, after they won 42 votes from existing members. But the coalition has deep structural issues that render the inclusion of new members almost meaningless. The principle sticking point involves voting. Existing members of the coalition insist that the inclusion of new members must be based on balloting by existing members only. But this would change little in a monopoly that was made possible by interference from regional countries to begin with, rather than based on consensus among Syrian opposition. The existing members were not chosen by the people to decide whether certain opposition figures should be members or not. The second issue is the blocking third, or the veto power held by a third of the members. This idea was advanced by the coalitions secretary general, Mustafa Al Sabbagh, and was clearly meant to maintain the monopoly of the current core group within the coalition. Mr Al Sabbagh was directly appointed by Qatar and its allies in the Muslim Brotherhood when the coalition was formed in Doha in November. Shortly after his appointment, he unsuccessfully tried to bypass the coalitions leadership through ad hoc power grabs. Mr Al Sabbagh insists on maintaining the position of secretary general while presiding over the blocking third. He also wants to increase the number of local councils - groups of Syrians claimed to be based on geography - by one for each two new members added to the coalition. He was appointed as a secretary general after he falsely claimed he represented those councils. Such formula would only make matters worse. In effect, the arguments in Istanbul are about the current members seeking to expand their influence within the coalition, instead of making it more representative and dynamic. Without solving these structural issues, the dominant members can maintain their monopoly even if new members are added. The same happened when the Syrian National Council was replaced by the current National Coalition - although the latter began as a more representative body, the Muslim Brotherhood soon took full control of it. One member of the coalition told me Mr Al Sabbagh has been pushed by Doha to block any changes to give the impression that the new sponsors of the Syrian dossier have failed. By new sponsors, he meant Saudi Arabia, which has assumed responsibilities of sponsoring the Syrian opposition, pushing Qatar aside. Members of the opposition have shown during the Istanbul talks that they put their interests above and beyond the interests of the people they claim to represent. Sources told me that a foreign ambassador told Mr Al Sabbagh that his attempts to block the expansion will undermine the coalition in upcoming weeks as Russia and the United States organise a peace summit. The ambassador told Mr Al Sabbagh that the failure to reach an agreement might lead to the fracture of the coalition. The ambassador asked him: Whats your priority? He replied, and I paraphrase, My conditions are more important and urgent. These cynical moves were also highlighted in a video that emerged on Monday, showing a heated conversation between the French ambassador, Eric Chevallier, and a member of the coalition. The ambassador chastised the member for blocking the attempts to reach an agreement. The member got angry at the ambassador and told other members that he did not care whether France would cut weapons from the opposition. The member added that the opposition did not need France. How many people have died as the opposition has been bickering in Istanbul? An area near Damascus was reportedly attacked with some type of chemical weapons. Hizbollah has escalated both its rhetoric and operations in Syria. The death toll is climbing as I type. The world is still waiting for the opposition to make a decision as to whether it will participate in the peace conference later this month, Sources say that the opposition is stalling by insisting that the UN issue it a formal invitation to attend the conference. Still, the world has taken some steps. The European Union, for instance, has effectively lifted its arms embargo to allow member states to arm the Syrian rebels and renewed economic sanctions on the regime. It is remarkable that the only time the opposition has spent talking this long since the beginning of the uprising is when they feel their political future is at risk. There have been only two other instances in which the opposition met on this scale for an entire week: when a US-backed plan to replace the Syrian National Council was presented in the winter of last year; and during Cairo meetings in July, when the council was asked to subject itself to an independent committee in charge of restructuring it. It is time for Syrians to realise that the political opposition is an important factor behind the stalemate. 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