Maybe we should find out if that is reasonable, or maybe just a journalistic misunderstanding. That's is a huge difference to the sources you quote. I was quite comfortable that there would be no more than a couple of adjustments required per year out at 200yrs. Unfortunately there are no sources quoted by Powers.
Le 28.01.2015 16:27, Steve Allen a écrit : > On Wed 2015-01-28T15:10:09 +0000, Alex Currant via LEAPSECS hath writ: > >> I have trouble believing people who keep misleading and outdated information >> on their web pages > > Following up the issue from last week about how big will the > difference between Atomic Time and Universal Time get during > this century I note this followup by the Wall Street Journal > > http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/reader-mailbag-second-guessing-on-leap-seconds-1919/ > [1] > > Edward Powers of USNO estimates that AT and UT would differ by > one hour in 500 years. That is a faster rate of divergence > than anything on my web pages, and very different from the > random walk estimate of Matsakis at USNO. > > If there is a problem with my web pages I will be happy to debate > it either publicly or discus it privately. > > -- > Steve Allen <s...@ucolick.org> WGS-84 (GPS) > UCO/Lick Observatory--ISB Natural Sciences II, Room 165 Lat +36.99855 > 1156 High Street Voice: +1 831 459 3046 Lng -122.06015 > Santa Cruz, CA 95064 http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ [2] Hgt +250 m > _______________________________________________ > LEAPSECS mailing list > LEAPSECS@leapsecond.com > https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs [3] Links: ------ [1] http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/reader-mailbag-second-guessing-on-leap-seconds-1919/ [2] http://www.ucolick.org/~sla/ [3] https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs
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