Here is a prediction I made in 2014 as well: https://www.gps.gov/cgsic/meetings/2014/matsakis.pdf <https://www.gps.gov/cgsic/meetings/2014/matsakis.pdf>
Slide 6 is an Allan-deviation analysis of UT1-UTC, and from that I concluded that on a decadal scale it looked like a random run. That means the change in Length of Day is a random walk, and therefore best prediction on a decadal scale is that the LOD would average out at the current average value. That didn’t work out too well - although back then the predictions being quoted at the ITU meetings just assumed some variation of a long-term slow-down. I haven’t re-run the statistics. I’d still bet that the average LOD stays constant at its latest several-year average value for the next ten years, meaning no negative leap second. But I’d lower the ante :) > On Jul 12, 2020, at 4:39 PM, leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com wrote: > > Send LEAPSECS mailing list submissions to > leapsecs@leapsecond.com > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > leapsecs-requ...@leapsecond.com > > You can reach the person managing the list at > leapsecs-ow...@leapsecond.com > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of LEAPSECS digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. Re: Bulletin C number 60 (Poul-Henning Kamp) > 2. Re: Bulletin C number 60 (Warner Losh) > 3. Re: Bulletin C number 60 (Tom Van Baak) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2020 15:07:19 +0000 > From: "Poul-Henning Kamp" <p...@phk.freebsd.dk> > To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs@leapsecond.com>, Tony Finch > <d...@dotat.at> > Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] Bulletin C number 60 > Message-ID: <78681.1594566...@critter.freebsd.dk> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > -------- > Tony Finch writes: > >> The LOD is hovering around 0 and the UT1-UTC chart is looking remarkably >> flat. >> >> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-UT1-UTC-BULA&id=9 >> >> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-LOD-BULA&id=9 > > Is it time for a LEAPSECS betting pool on when the first negative leap second > is deleted ? > > -- > Poul-Henning Kamp | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20 > p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956 > FreeBSD committer | BSD since 4.3-tahoe > Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence. > > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 2 > Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2020 11:47:07 -0600 > From: Warner Losh <i...@bsdimp.com> > To: Leap Second Discussion List <leapsecs@leapsecond.com> > Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] Bulletin C number 60 > Message-ID: > <CANCZdfoHJdrg50CXyO4LPCTf-5B_SWmqEPOphz6t5H=ev6o...@mail.gmail.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" > > On Sun, Jul 12, 2020, 9:07 AM Poul-Henning Kamp <p...@phk.freebsd.dk> wrote: > >> -------- >> Tony Finch writes: >> >>> The LOD is hovering around 0 and the UT1-UTC chart is looking remarkably >> flat. >>> >>> >> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-UT1-UTC-BULA&id=9 >>> >>> >> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-LOD-BULA&id=9 >> >> Is it time for a LEAPSECS betting pool on when the first negative leap >> second is deleted ? >> > > I'll have to stock up on the popcorn for the broken things that will find... > > Warner > > -- >> Poul-Henning Kamp | UNIX since Zilog Zeus 3.20 >> p...@freebsd.org | TCP/IP since RFC 956 >> FreeBSD committer | BSD since 4.3-tahoe >> Never attribute to malice what can adequately be explained by incompetence. >> _______________________________________________ >> LEAPSECS mailing list >> LEAPSECS@leapsecond.com >> https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs >> > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > <https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/attachments/20200712/b98b2d91/attachment-0001.html> > > ------------------------------ > > Message: 3 > Date: Sun, 12 Jul 2020 13:39:06 -0700 > From: Tom Van Baak <t...@leapsecond.com> > To: leapsecs@leapsecond.com > Subject: Re: [LEAPSECS] Bulletin C number 60 > Message-ID: <a9f6eb24-a79f-f997-5827-0c50a9508...@leapsecond.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"; Format="flowed" > >> Is it time for a LEAPSECS betting pool on when the first negative > leap second is deleted? > > Yes. Or when UTC will stop having leap seconds, yes. > > Here's betting on leap seconds; in a long thread from 2012: > > [LEAPSECS] Straw men > https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/2012-January/003762.html > > Here's a prediction about 2020; from 2014: > >> Any betting person would say the plot shows an upward trend over the >> past 40 years. A simple linear fit suggests the earth will be back to an >> honest 86400 second day within a few years, around MJD ~59000 (year > ~2020). > > [LEAPSECS] earth speeding up > https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/2014-April/005102.html > > Attached are the plots from the above posting. > > /tvb > > On 7/12/2020 8:07 AM, Poul-Henning Kamp wrote: >> -------- >> Tony Finch writes: >> >>> The LOD is hovering around 0 and the UT1-UTC chart is looking remarkably >>> flat. >>> >>> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-UT1-UTC-BULA&id=9 >>> >>> https://datacenter.iers.org/singlePlot.php?plotname=FinalsAllIAU2000A-LOD-BULA&id=9 >> Is it time for a LEAPSECS betting pool on when the first negative leap >> second is deleted ? >> > > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: > <https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/attachments/20200712/795ff21c/attachment.html> > -------------- next part -------------- > A non-text attachment was scrubbed... > Name: earth-lod-10.gif > Type: image/gif > Size: 16932 bytes > Desc: not available > URL: > <https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/attachments/20200712/795ff21c/attachment.gif> > -------------- next part -------------- > A non-text attachment was scrubbed... > Name: earth-lod-11.gif > Type: image/gif > Size: 17685 bytes > Desc: not available > URL: > <https://pairlist6.pair.net/pipermail/leapsecs/attachments/20200712/795ff21c/attachment-0001.gif> > > ------------------------------ > > Subject: Digest Footer > > _______________________________________________ > LEAPSECS mailing list > LEAPSECS@leapsecond.com > https://pairlist6.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/leapsecs > > > ------------------------------ > > End of LEAPSECS Digest, Vol 153, Issue 3 > ****************************************
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