>Date: Mon, 18 Sep 2000 14:42:20 -0400 >To: lbo-talk <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >From: Doug Henwood <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: new Yugo war? > >Business Week - September 25, 2000 > >Why NATO Is Bracing for Another War in Yugoslavia > >Slobodan Milosevic is backed into the tightest corner he has seen in >years. The wily Yugoslav leader has presided over the disintegration >of his country, lost four wars, isolated his people internationally, >seen himself indicted as a war criminal, provoked last year's >devastating NATO bombings for his brutal repression in Kosovo, and >through it all, managed to survive. But now he faces a surprisingly >strong challenge in a presidential election scheduled for Sept. 24. >The opposition's Vojislav Kostunica, a 56-year-old lawyer and member >of parliament, leads Milosevic by 20 points in independent polls. > >Yet only a few optimists think Milosevic is on his way out. Instead, >most political observers see the election as a potentially dangerous >catalyst for a new Balkan crisis that could involve the U.S. and its >allies in another violent confrontation with the Serbs. > >Milosevic called the vote after ramming through constitutional >amendments in July. The new law allows him to run for reelection in >a direct vote rather than retire by 2001, as the old rules required. >But now, to win, it appears that Milosevic will have to commit >massive fraud. That could spark public protests in Serbia--the >larger of two republics remaining in the Yugoslav federation--and a >brutal crackdown on the opposition in response. > >''CRITICAL PERIOD.'' Just as bad, Milosevic may be tempted to >provoke a conflict with Montenegro, the tiny Yugoslav republic that >has defied Belgrade by introducing democratic reforms and opposing >Serbia's war in Kosovo. Civil strife inside Montenegro, where a >third of the population still backs Milosevic, or a skirmish on the >Serb-Montenegrin border could give Milosevic a reason to declare a >state of emergency and postpone the elections. > >The Montenegrins are bracing for a confrontation. Even if Milosevic >does not provoke an incident, Montenegro President Milo Djukanovic >has called on his citizens to boycott the election because >Milosevic's constitutional amendments diminish Montenegro's power in >the federation. ''We will not accept the results'' if Milosevic >wins, says Montenegrin Foreign Affairs Minister Branko Lukovac. ''We >will certainly enter the critical period of confronting Milosevic.'' >Lukovac fears Milosevic will order the army to seal Montenegro's >border to keep it from importing essential goods. If that happens, >Lukovac says, Montenegro's 12,000-strong police force--equipped with >armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and light weapons--will >fight. While they're no match in firepower, Djukanovic's forces may >have an edge in Montenegro's mountainous terrain. > >CORNERED. Such a conflict could easily spread into a broader Balkan >war, a worrying prospect for the U.S. A senior Clinton >Administration official says the U.S. and NATO allies have consulted >about possible responses to a Milosevic move. NATO has 40,000 troops >stationed in Kosovo. And the U.S. Navy is planning exercises in the >Adriatic Sea the weekend of Yugoslavia's election. ''The fear is >that Milosevic will move to strengthen his hand at home, in the >belief that he can do so because the U.S. is preoccupied with its >own elections,'' says Ivo H. Daalder, senior fellow at the Brookings >Institution. > >Because of his indictment in The Hague for war crimes, Milosevic has >few options but to hold on to power. He has told supporters that he >must win more than 50% of the vote on Sept. 24, so he can avoid a >run-off. It will be up to the Serbian people to decide whether or >not they accept the result. > >By Christopher Condon in Budapest, with bureau reports _______________________________________________ Leninist-International mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international
