Maoists Pushing Nepal Closer to India Summary Instability is again on the rise along the volatile border between India and China. Each country seeks influence among buffer states with one win so far in either corner: Myanmar for China, Bhutan for India. Nepal, the lone hold out, tries to maintain a balance between the two great powers, although the growing threat of Maoist insurgent attacks will probably move Nepal into the Indian camp. Analysis The latest round of Maoist assaults on Nepalese police stations, two this week, shows the insurgency gaining ground in geography and numbers. The recent attack, which Maoists claim is their most successful in western Nepal, is part of an escalating five-year campaign that has killed over a thousand Nepalese. In the past, China and India have battled for economic and security influence in the buffer states along their border. The effort to establish close security ties has been especially apparent in Bhutan, where India has requested Bhutan's assistance and offered military training to drive out Indian rebel bases in Bhutan. In Myanmar, the Chinese have had initial success in building a strong relationship. Troubled by those ties, India has had marginal success countering China's influence with development projects for Myanmar. The recent Maoist insurgent attacks illustrate the growing significance of the insurgency threat in Nepal and its links to separatist groups in India. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) CPN-M, which claimed responsibility for the attacks, has been conducting an underground campaign since 1996 to topple Nepal's constitutional monarchy and instill single communist party rule. Maoists are not an official Nepalese political party and not the main Communist Party in Nepal -- the United Marxist Leninists (UML). Over the summer, there have been four notable changes in Maoist tactics: support base, size, weaponry, and money. Initially Maoists support was primarily in the western highlands, but is now growing in almost a third of Nepal. The size of the group also seems to have grown. A unit used to number 10 to 20 insurgents, but the most recent attack involved over 100 insurgents. The insurgents steal money, arms and other valuables during raids, to acquire funds for purchasing arms, ammunition or training from supporters. For example, Maoists used automatic rifles in the recent assault. Significantly, Nepal and India agree that Maoist support comes from Indian separatist groups such as the People's War Group in Andha Pradesh and the Maoist Coordination Center in Bihar. Nepalese police claim these groups have assisted Maoists in establishing training camps and programs. Nevertheless, due to strained relations between India and Nepal, the two governments have had difficulty working together to tackle this joint threat since the December 1999 hijacking of an Indian Air flight from Nepal's Tribhuvan International Airport. Following that event, security issues replaced trade issues as the dominant concern in Indian-Nepal relations. Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala recently met with Indian officials to discuss the Maoist insurgency. India seeks greater security cooperation with Nepal especially regarding Maoists and Indian separatist groups. India also claims the Maoists and the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) are working together to destabilize India. The growing incentive for security cooperation between India and Nepal is not lost on China. The Chinese are making efforts to reduce Nepal's significant economic dependence on India. Nepal and China have joint interests in trade, transportation links, and Tibetan stability. Recently, China said it intends to improve the transportation infrastructure in its western states and work on linking Nepal to this infrastructure through transit points. These Chinese efforts worry India. Across the China-India border tension simmers. China and India continue their quest for influence. Myanmar and Bhutan appear to have chosen sides. Will Nepal choose sides? Nepal's growing insurgency with ties to Indian separatists will require closer Indian-Nepalese security cooperation. This cooperation, which could follow the pattern of Indian training assistance to Bhutan, will affect Chinese economic and security interests in Nepal. Nepal's decision will make it the tiebreaker buffer state, with the advantage likely to go to India. ================ Macdonald Stainsby. Rad-Green List: Radical anti-capitalist environmental discussion. http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/rad-green ---------- http://www.geocities.com/leninist_international/ http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international _______________________________________________ Leninist-International mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international
