[EMAIL PROTECTED] schrieb: > Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 26 October 2000 > _________________________________________________ > > What in the world is going on? > > Also on Stratfor.com > > Peru's political crisis intensifies with the unexpected return of > former spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos. Is President Fujimori firmly > in charge, as he claims to be, or is his former henchman pulling > the strings in a plan that may soon force the president to step > aside? > http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/analysis/0010260025.htm > > _________________________________________________ > > Israel Moves - Quickly - To Beef Up Its Submarine Force > > > Summary > > Citing "security reasons", the Israeli government has decided to > speed up the shipment of a new submarine from Germany. Israel > reportedly has plans to equip the submarine to attack land-based > targets with nuclear weapons. Israel does not appear to have > immediate naval security concerns because of its Arab neighbors. > The delivery of the submarine most likely is intended to complete a > nuclear land-attack capability to deter the current crisis from > descending into region-wide war or allow Israel to fight one, if > necessary. > > Analysis > > The Tekuma, the last of three new, German-built, Dolphin-class > submarines, has been rushed from Germany to Israel for "security > reasons", an army spokesman said on military radio Oct. 24. The > craft has been in Germany while the crew underwent training. > > The Israeli military appears to be completing the development of a > second-strike nuclear land-attack capability. Fighting between > Palestinians and Israelis is likely to go on for months. And if > tension in the Middle East descends into regional war, damaging > Israel's land-based nuclear weapons, the Israeli navy can still > field a surviving submarine-based force capable of launching an > attack. > > Despite the progress that has been made, the regional crisis has > not yet ended. Although the key regional actor, Egypt, has made a > strategic choice for peace, anti-Israeli sentiment continues to > build, inflamed by continued violence in the Palestinian > territories. In a weakened state, Israel's prime minister is > increasingly desperate and his government appears, as a result, to > have hastened delivery of the new submarine. > _______________________________________________________________ > > For more on the Middle East and Africa, see: > http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/default.htm > _____________________________________________________________ > > Tekuma is the last of three Dolphin-class submarines, built and > largely subsidized by Germany expressly for deployment by the > Israeli navy in Mediterranean waters. The German decision to > underwrite the Israeli Dolphin program stems from the 1991 Persian > Gulf War, when Iraq struck Israel with Scuds, equipped with > warheads at least partially developed by German firms. > Subsequently, Helmut Kohl, the chancellor at the time, offered > military assistance, including construction of two of the three > Dolphin submarines. The Germans helped pay for the first two; > Israel financed the Tekuma. > > The diesel-powered Dolphins will reportedly replace Israel's three > aging German submarines, which entered service in 1977. The 187- > foot Tekuma weighs 1,700 tons and can accommodate a crew of 35 for > more than one month of continuous operations. The Dolphin class is > designed for interdiction, surveillance and special-forces > operations and is designed to travel at maximum speeds of 20 knots > with a cruising range of 4,500 nautical miles. The vessel has 10 > torpedo tubes and is capable of launching Harpoon missiles. > > While the vessel is designed for a standard attack role, Israel has > comparatively little to fear from the Egyptian or Syrian navies. > The Egyptian navy is primarily focused on coastal defense and its > submarine fleet only consists of four old Romeo class patrol > submarines. The last significant improvement of its navy was in > 1996; the four subs underwent a $133 million upgrade to acquire the > capability to fire anti-ship missiles and NT37 wire-guided > torpedoes. The Syrian navy is in worse shape; its three Romeo class > submarines are non-operational, according to London's International > Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). At least one reportedly > sank pier-side in the mid-1990s. > > Israel's eagerness to deploy the submarine probably is intended as > a deterrent to regional war. Jane's International Defense Review > (IDR) reported in September 1999 that sources close to the German > construction project said Israel was planning to equip the Dolphins > with a nuclear land-attack capability shortly after the submarine's > arrival. This was to be done by modifying U.S.-supplied Sub-Harpoon > missiles with an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and > guidance kit. Each Dolphin would reportedly be able to carry five > modified Sub-Harpoons, with a range of 80 miles, as well as 16 > torpedoes. > __________________________________________________________________ > > For more on Israel, see: > http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Israel/default.htm > _____________________________________________________________ > > As well, Israel clearly has an interest in land-attack missiles. In > January, Israel asked the United States to sell it 50 Tomahawk > land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its deep-strike capabilities > under its wide-ranging strategic defense program, according to > Jane's Missiles and Rockets. It was not clear whether Israel was > seeking air- or sea-launched variants, but the mission of the > Israeli navy traditionally coastal defense and maritime supply > route protection is expanding to include a stronger deterrent and > survivable nuclear-strike capability. > > Washington rejected Israel's request in March, prompting concern > that Israel may develop its own indigenous long-range cruise > missile. Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli official told > Defense News, "History has taught us that we cannot wait > indefinitely for Washington to satisfy our military requirements. > If this weapon system is denied to us, we will have little choice > but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit of this needed > capability." > > Indeed, Israel may have already developed cruise missiles on its > own. The London Sunday Times reported June 18 that Israel had test- > fired domestic-produced cruise missiles from its newly acquired > Dolphin-class submarine off Sri Lanka in May. And the U.S. National > Air Intelligence Center warned the U.S. Congress in July 1998 that > Israel was developing a cruise missile believed to be the Rafael- > produced Popeye Turbo missile with a range of 215 miles that was > expected to be operational by 2002. Although the Popeye Turbo is > promoted as an air-launched weapon, it may be adapted for submarine > launch. > > If Israel has managed to create its own submarine-launched cruise > missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, it would mark a > major step in its nuclear capability and throw the balance of power > further in Israel's favor. > > Israel is clearly concerned that the current crisis still has > potential to pull in surrounding Arab nations and blow up into a > regional war. Israeli military doctrine has always focused on > immediate threats from its Arab neighbors, strong deterrence and a > first-strike capability. Israel may be hoping its increased > readiness will further deter Arab nations from involving themselves > in a larger war. > > _______________________________________________ > > (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. > > _______________________________________________ > > > SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. 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