http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061215/ap_on_bi_ge/immigration_raids_meatpa\
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<http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061215/ap_on_bi_ge/immigration_raids_meatp\
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Immigration raids may affect meat prices
By ROXANA HEGEMAN, Associated Press Writer Fri Dec 15, 5:56 AM ET

When hordes of police and immigration officials stormed meatpacking
plants in six states this week, the illegal workers arrested may not
have been the only victims.

Consumers and the industry itself may be feeling the repercussions in a
shortage of meatpackers, higher wage costs and, ultimately, higher
prices for the beef that lands on America's tables at home and in
restaurants.

Some analysts see the current emphasis on enforcement in the meatpacking
industry as the precursor to getting an immigration bill through
Congress — by demonstrating the government's capability to enforce
laws at the work site.

"The meatpacking industry has become dependent on an unauthorized labor
force, and it is not good government to destroy an entire industry. In
some way, there is going to be a meeting of the minds," said Mark Reed,
a former immigration regional director who now runs his own consulting
business, Border Management Strategies, in Tucson, Ariz.

Every labor-intensive industry — the hotel industry, the
construction industry, agriculture — will be similarly impacted, he
said.

"It just happens the meatpacking industry is in the cross hairs right
now," Reed said.

Continued massive immigration raids would cut cattle prices paid to
cattle feeders and cattle producers while raising the cost of beef for
consumers, said James Mintert, an agricultural economist at Kansas State
University.

It would also reduce the available labor supply — putting the U.S.
meatpacking industry in a position more comparable to the Canadian
slaughterhouses, which have much higher labor costs because they have
less access to cheap immigrant labor.

"You are going to end up paying higher wages," Mintert said.

Swift & Co. said its meatpacking plants were running at reduced levels a
day after nearly 1,300 employees were arrested in a massive immigration
sweep that temporarily halted operations.

Cattle slaughter numbers had been running about the same as a year ago
the day prior to arrests. The immigration sweep on Tuesday cut the
nation's daily cattle slaughter numbers by 9 percent, Mintert said.

Still, Mintert cited preliminary data from the Agriculture Department's
federally inspected slaughter numbers showing that by Wednesday
slaughter numbers nationwide had recovered and were up a fraction from a
week ago as other meatpackers picked up the slack at Swift's plants.

"It looks like what took place had limited impact — we had a one-day
impact," he said.

Swift said in a written statement that its operations had resumed at
reduced levels on Wednesday at the plants in Greeley, Colorado; Grand
Island, Nebraska; Cactus, Texas; Hyrum, Utah; Marshalltown, Iowa; and
Worthington, Minnesota. Production was expected to be below normal in
the short term, but the company did not provide further details and did
not return a call for comment.

At Tyson Foods Inc., the world's largest meat processor, the raids did
not result in any significant change to the company's livestock buying
efforts, and plants were operating normally at expected production
levels, said Tyson spokesman Gary Mickelson.

It is uncertain how much impact increased immigration enforcement at the
nation's slaughter plants would have on consumer meat prices.

"If the price of meat goes up a little bit, so what? There is nothing as
expensive as cheap labor because we pay for this cheap labor in other
ways — higher insurance costs, higher taxes," said Mark Krikorian,
executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies.

He cited a study his group did a few years ago looking at what impact
the loss of illegal immigrant labor would have on consumer prices for
fresh fruits and vegetables, a far more immigrant-intensive business
than meatpackers.

Their study found that in summer the retail price of fresh fruit would
go up 6 percent for the first couple of years, and then settle to about
4 percent higher, Krikorian said.

The last time a major shift in the nation's meatpacking industry
occurred was in the 1960s and 1970s when the industry shifted away from
the urban areas in the Midwest and located to the Great Plains, where
they drew more on immigrant labor.

During the 60s and 70s meatpacking wages were relatively higher than at
manufacturing plants, running about 14 to 18 percent above manufacturing
wages at that time, Mintert said. By 2002, meatpacking wages were
running 25 percent below manufacturing wages.

Accompanying the wage drop was the decline of unions in the plants. In
the late 1970s, about 45 percent of the meatpacking industry was
unionized. By the late 1980s, that had dropped to 21 percent as more
immigrants took jobs in the industry, Mintert said.

Kevin Good, a senior market analyst for Cattle Fax in Denver, said any
disruption to the cattle market from the raids will be short term as
other plants absorb the excess cattle. He said beef prices so far have
been relatively flat.

"It is part of doing business," Good said of the raids.
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