Thank you for a very clear presentation on this important issue. I hope everyone has an opportunity to view this.
On Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 12:37 PM Karla Gravis <karlagra...@gmail.com> wrote: > I encourage everyone to watch the video Ben created (link copied below). > It does a great job explaining the model. > > The state model does account for septics and setbacks in its 20% open > space deduction. Where the model is flawed is that it doesn’t just use 20% > of the developable land (aka non wetlands), instead it subtracts 20% of the > ENTIRE parcel from the developable land. This results in a severe > underestimation of land that is developable. > > As an example, the state model has determined that 0 units can be built on > properties like Ryan Estates. Yet there are 24 units there already, without > septic/setback/etc issues. > > Rob is correct in his interpretation. I would add one point: public land > also gives us zero units but, if included in the HCA proposals, can be > redeveloped at a later point. Why do the town's proposals include 6 acres > of superfluous public land, which give us no compliance credit but would be > locked at a 10% affordability requirement? > > Please take a look at the video. Thank you Ben for all the time and effort > spent on this. > > > https://youtu.be/mqXo4TPw3MI?si=uJeutuF1eSa9VpRu > > >> >> >> ---------- Forwarded message --------- >> From: Margaret Olson <s...@margaretolson.com> >> Date: Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 11:22 >> Subject: Re: [LincolnTalk] Many more than 640 units may be developed. An >> explanation >> To: Rob Haslinger <rob.haslin...@gmail.com> >> CC: Benjamin Shiller <benshil...@gmail.com>, Lincoln Talk < >> Lincoln@lincolntalk.org> >> >> >> The state's (implied) reasoning is that you can't actually build (zoned >> density x parcel size) on land with wetlands. This is true - the logistics >> of setbacks, height restrictions, and the need for septic and circulation >> and parking. Their concern is that towns do not claim that land with >> wetlands supports far more units than is actually the case. >> >> >> >> On Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 11:03 AM Rob Haslinger <rob.haslin...@gmail.com> >> wrote: >> >>> Hi Ben and others - >>> >>> Thanks for digging into the details of how the state compliance model >>> works. I'm a Data Scientist by profession so the video seemed clear to me >>> after a few viewings, but I'm still drinking my coffee and not firing on >>> cylinders yet so I wanted to sanity check my understanding. >>> >>> As I understand you, the crux of the problem is that the state model for >>> calculating compliant units can not be used to accurately estimate the >>> number of units that could by right be built on parcels that include >>> wetlands. This stems from two factors: >>> >>> 1) The state model underestimates buildable area because it removes 20% >>> of the area for "free space" before subtracting off the wetlands, rather >>> than after subtracting wetlands (as seems more reasonable). This lowers the >>> number of compliant units we get per parcel, which means we need more >>> parcels to comply. >>> 2) The actual number of units a developer can legally build on a parcel >>> has nothing to do with the number of compliant units, but instead is simply >>> the total parcel area (including wetlands) multiplied by the zoned density >>> which under the HCA must be 15 units per acre. >>> >>> The upshot then is that if we include parcels with wetlands, the number >>> of units that can be built by right may be many more than the number of >>> compliant units. The number of compliant units is therefore extremely >>> misleading for estimating how many units might be built by right. >>> >>> Do I correctly understand your points or have I missed something? >>> >>> Thanks again for the effort you put into digging in and explaining the >>> details to us all. >>> >>> Cheers >>> >>> Rob Haslinger >>> South Great Road >>> >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Nov 7, 2023 at 9:27 AM Benjamin Shiller <benshil...@gmail.com> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> I spent substantial efforts to understand the Housing Choice Act >>>> Compliance model, and then create a video explaining the model and why it’s >>>> flaws along with the parcels in option C may very well lead to 1326 housing >>>> units in the rezoned area if parcels are combined, or over 1100 is parcels >>>> are not combined. Either number is well more than the 640 units the >>>> proposal is aiming for, and more than the 520 units we would seemingly have >>>> to rezone for according to the law. Keep in mind, there are only about >>>> 2080 housing units in Lincoln excluding Hanscom. Please consider watching >>>> the video to learn about the flaws in the state’s model and why this may be >>>> problematic. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> https://youtu.be/mqXo4TPw3MI?si=uJeutuF1eSa9VpRu >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >>>> To post, send mail to Lincoln@lincolntalk.org. >>>> Browse the archives at >>>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >>>> Change your subscription settings at >>>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >>> >>> >>>> >>>> -- >>> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >>> To post, send mail to Lincoln@lincolntalk.org. >>> Browse the archives at >>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >>> Change your subscription settings at >>> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >>> >>> -- >> The LincolnTalk mailing list. >> To post, send mail to Lincoln@lincolntalk.org. >> Browse the archives at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/. >> Change your subscription settings at >> https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. >> >> -- > The LincolnTalk mailing list. > To post, send mail to Lincoln@lincolntalk.org. > Browse the archives at https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/private/lincoln/ > . > Change your subscription settings at > https://pairlist9.pair.net/mailman/listinfo/lincoln. > >
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