Linux-Advocacy Digest #410, Volume #27 Sat, 1 Jul 00 06:13:06 EDT
Contents:
Re: The MEDIA this year! (R.E.Ballard ( Rex Ballard ))
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From: R.E.Ballard ( Rex Ballard ) <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: The MEDIA this year!
Date: Sat, 01 Jul 2000 09:02:28 GMT
In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>,
Charlie Ebert <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> I have to write this.
So do i (It's 2:30 A.M. on a Friday Night and my
girl-friend's out of town).
> I've never seen so many big name magazines having editorials
> about Linux before! We must have 6 times the media coverage
> Windows has in the editorials this year. Magazine after
> Magazine, some editor is prodding your company to consider
> the Linux jump this year.
Keep in mind, Linux and the Internet are driven by the same core
forces, have evolved in similar ways. It's unusual to have any
industry with a triple digit growth rate for more than a year
or two. The internet enjoyed 350% or better growth rates for
over nearly 5 years. Essentially, the Internet doubled in value
every 4-6 months. Over the last 3 years, over $1 trillion dollars
worth of sales volume have been Internet driven (Internet as primary
source of information leading up to purchase action). By the end
of 2000, we could see $1 trillion per YEAR in volume.
What makes this particularly interesting is that most of the leaders,
and most of the most profitable companies started with shoe-strings.
They ran a shoe-string budget, setting up co-hosted Linux servers
(local one for test and debug, remotely hosted one connected to ethernet
and high-speed lines.
Of course, you could also do most of you prototyping and development
on a Linux based Laptop or cheap PC.
What was happening under the covers was that there were actually
TWO triple digit growth industries. Everybody caught on to the Internet
back in 1996 (I'd been working on it since 1992). But like the mammals
who ate dinosaur eggs, the workhorse behind the internet was Open Source
software. And the most complete package of Open Source software was
the Linux distribution.
What made things even more interesting was that Linux distributions
could be fairly easily ported to other UNIX platforms such as SunOS,
Solaris, Ultrix, AIX, and HP_UX.
Of course, Microsoft was willing to spend Billions on advertizing for
almost any two-bit company that could offer equivalent functionality
in GUI form on the NT platform. It didn't matter that the GUIs
got in the way, that many on-line publishers had to process, archive,
and announce nearly 200 new documents a MINUTE.
While Microsoft and Oracle were proudly announcing that for a minimum
investment of $5 million, they could set you up with a "vanity site",
the Open Source communities were setting up sites in New York's
"Now Fashionable Lower East Side" (the squats), and turning it into
"Silicon Alley", using primarily Linux, FreeBSD, and eventually
graduating to Suns, IBMs, and HPs in places like Ohio and Colorado.
The creative talent wanted to do their fusion reactions of creativity
in NYC and CA, while the severs were remotely managed in warehouses
and third floor offices renting for $6/square foot.
> They are taking polls.
Major Industry pundits have been watching Linux growth like a hawk
for almost 4 years now. At one point there was concern that momentum
could have faltered, but it was actually the expansion of the market
into more suppliers. The top-line growth of Linux is only slightly
less than the Internet (270%/year for Linux, 360%/year for Internet).
> They are toughting the benefits.
Back in 1994, when I was working for Dow Jones, a columnist wrote
an article praising Linux and UNIX, pointing out that these platforms
did in fact have graphical user interfaces. That these window managers
didn't crash, and that Linux pretty great compared to Windows 3.1.
The day after the story hit the street, Microsoft called and pulled
two full-page ads. Essentially, they said that if they liked Linux
so much, Linux should pay for the ad space. The irony is that
Microsoft paid most if it's ad space bills with software royalties
instead of real money. And they were credited for full-retail
on every item we recieved. However, the "Billy Bucks" added up
to more than the salaries of the writer and editor combined, and they
decided that they really needed to focus on more "important issues"
(like the possibility that someday, Windows NT might actually be
showing up).
Now, suddenly you have some mid-cap companies who are putting some
of their own ad-money into Linux, and you have a number of big-cap
companies who are very interested in the possibility of having 3-5
Linux vendors bidding on product lines - right next to Microsoft.
The biggest problem is that Microsoft doesn't want to share. And
now Microsoft is trying to punish some of the OEMs with "features"
like "medialess distributions" (if the files get corrupted, you're
toast). This is intended to coerce corporate customers into forbidding
the installation of Linux on PCs.
Many of the OEMs and ISVs were holding back, hoping for a court
order with some "teeth" in it, and then Judge Jackson decided
to grant an indefinite stay. Essentially this means that Microsoft
can break the law all it wants and yet they can claim ignorance
because they didn't have to sign papers saying that they were aware
that certain practices were illegal.
The key is that many OEMs ARE offering preconfigured Linux systems,
and this eliminates all those hideous installation problems. Even
if there were a problem, the hardware is chosen to make Linux
re-installation as easy as possible.
> They are drawing networking diagrams of how they did it.
This is starting to look much like late 1995 isn't it. Everybody
trying to show how clever they are, CEOs are demanding "Get us Linux
enabled" the way they shouted "Get us on the Web" back in 1996.
Many of the high-end server architects are no longer even willing
to discuss NT or Windows 2000 based solutions. With UNIX, they
have a dependable, scalable platform they can configure using simple
scripts that require minimal "personality edits".
With Linux, developers can do their development on a laptop, get a
working
prototype, and they can even fish old desktop workstations out of the
dumpsters (just like we did in the good ol days) so that they can set
up a prototype server, system test machine, stress test beta, and pilot
release system - that the company will have outgrown about 6 weeks after
the fully configured "Big Iron UNIX" systems have arrived.
> They are showing the benefits of doing it.
The benefits of Linux servers have been well known for years. You get
low initial cost, scalability, reliability, security, and remote
administration and management capabilities with the ability to scale
up to UNIX machines (though companies like IBM are now making the
machines scale up on Linux). These days, Linux runs on everything
from Pentium 90 machines with 32 meg of RAM (try that with Win2K),
on up to OS/390 and SP/2 machines (try THAT with Win2K). And Linux
clusters have now topped the chart of the world's fastest super
computers. Right now computer power originally used for things
like weather prediction and decryption of enemy transmissions have
found applications in financial modelling that makes the entire
economy much more predictable.
> They are ENCOURAGING it THIS YEAR!
And they are finding that allowing Linux developers to use Linux
workstations is becoming very important. Originally, the pundits
were thinking that corporations could adopt Linux servers but keep
developers on NT-only or Windows 9x workstations and laptops. Today,
real project managers are finding that it's nearly impossible to prevent
UNIX and Linux people from NOT installing Linux. Many will simply
refuse
an offer, accept new offers, or just go "covert".
> I wonder what next year's magazines will be like.
First of all, Windows World and PC Week will probably have
new names. Linux World is already picking up a rather substantial
market, the PC-Expo was loaded with new Linux based systems running
Linux on everything from Crusoe to P3 to K6-1000 to palmtops.
The really funny thing is that you would have to work really hard
to actually find your way down to Linux on many of the embedded
systems. You didn't even have the option of going to a shell prompt.
It's probably an "easter egg" that OEMs can enable when users get into
trouble.
This should seem very familiar. Remember the early days (1992, 1993)
of the commercial internet? You still had to log-in, start the slip
process on the terminal server, and then you started slip on your
PC, you got pine, Lynx, and Cello if you could fit it into your 40 meg
hard drive. Trumpet winsock was clunky but it worked.
Today, both Linux and Windows users fill out a cute little GUI form,
let the PPP dialer make the connection, and then they can start up
the web browser. Once they've got everything configured, both users
can simply auto-dial by fireing up a web browser.
> I mean I've NEVER seen the kind of media coverage
> for Linux that I've seen in the first 6 months of this year!
This is just the beginning. The Microsoft sponsored magazines
will be telling you how Linux is evil, but the mainstream press
will be reviewing new Linux desktops, many of which will probably
be an retailer shelves by September, maybe even earlier.
Needless to say, this will create a problem for all the Windows
advocates who have been focusing on how hard it is to install
Linux on their USB enabled, proprietary microsoft-only video,
microsoft-only SCSI chip, and Microsoft-only modem. Meanwhile,
peripheral makers are ramping up smart-modems (modems with built-in
UART and DSP chips).
There are still 2 more shows (CES, and San Jose Linux Expo) that
will probably get some really great coverage.
> They are pointing out the few advantages of Windows 2000 and
> their merits as opposed to Linux and saying this year is
> the year to move to Linux in the office.
The problem is that Windows 2000 provides the desparately needed
reliability, but is still vulnerable to security attacks via
Internet Explorer, Outlook, and Microsoft Office attachments.
When Microsoft was suddenly looking at real liability in the billions,
they released a "secure" version of outlook and secure settings for
IE. Both effectively cripple all of the "Microsoft-only" features,
including VBScript, Word attachments, Excel attachments, Javascript,
ActiveX controls, and self-extracting "exe" files. Microsoft was
hoping that corporations would simply say "never mind", and opt
to waive the security (assuming all of the liability directly).
Suddenly Open Source makes a great deal more sense. After all,
if I'm going to be liable for my choice of configurations, I'd
better choose very carefully. Which do I want, the virus infested
black hole offered by Microsoft, or an Open Source version that
my development people or consultants can validate in a matter
of minutes. (I'll take the buggy virus factory 8-).
> In polls, I've seen 10 reports showing something like 35% of
> business's polled said they would be starting a Linux movement
> within 2 years. Another 30% said they are considering it within
> the next 5 years. These are polls from corporate America.
> The balance say's they are not sure or won't.
Many of those polled don't realize that they already have a Linux
movement on their hands. Nearly anyone who has an internet site has
people who at MINIMUM use Linux at home. Many of them run dual-boot
machines at work, and many of them use VMWare or Wine to provide Win95
functions while they use Linux as their "primary" system.
> Those are some pretty serious figures. With those kinds of figures
> it seems that 60% of corporate America will be under the Linux
umbrella
> by 2005.
It's probably not an "all or nothing" situation. If Microsoft tries
to intimidate anyone, including corporate purchasing managers, OEMs,
or top executives into Microsoft only solutions, it will stop with the
"Could you send me that on e-mail and follow it with a signed faxed
copy. I will have to bring this one before our board."
On the other hand, we'll probably see Microsoft start to offer
some Linux applications, and Microsoft will probably license
some of it's technology to OEMs, ISVs, and VARs. Microsoft will
have to compete in a wide open market. This is something it's not
used to doing, and may not do well at. They won't have that big
stick (license revocation) to wave.
The fact is Microsoft will probably provide some applications for
Linux that will do very well. MS-Project comes to mind. On the
other hand, show me a Linux alternative and ...
> Some of the magazines have multiple editorials and even profile
stories
> about Linux in the office place.
It's the classic "It took me 20 years to become an overnight success".
Linux started with the UNIX base which had been forged in some of the
most demanding production environments in the world. The power,
telephone, railroad, air traffic control, and numerous satellite
and defense systems were forged on UNIX. And Linux developers
worked very hard to make sure that the Linux kernel didn't break it.
> I see these magazines at my office and the offices of others.
> They are targeted at commerical users. They have ad's for
> Windows Back office server, and mini-computers, ATM networks,
> high powered copier/printers, so on and so forth. Not residential
> magazines.
Linux has been nailing the "appliance" industry for over a year now.
It just moved to the top of the list in the server market. Systems
like the Cobalt Qube and Raq don't even need a terminal, you plug it
into anything with a web browser and it configures itself using
your input to via the web server.
> But now that we are on the subject of Computers in the residential
> section, took a trip to the grocery store to view some of the stories
> in the magzines on the shelf. It was a virutal replay of the same
> story.
Back when the only way to get a Linux system was to get a big fat
book, grab the CD-ROM pasted to the cover, and try to muddle through
for 2-3 days, you'd be justified in saying Linux wasn't ready for
the massses. Linus called the charge for entering the desktop
market almost exacty 2 years ago. At that time, Gnome was basically
an alpha project with almost no features. KDE was still fighting
over what should be Open Source and what should be developer licensed.
Red Hat was "administrator friendly" but didn't even offer applications
on it's start menu.
Today, the biggest problem is trying to figure out a menu system that
will
enable you to select from the over 500 GUI applications available.
> Appearently here, you see the big write-ups about Mandrake 7.1.
> About Suse 6.4, Redhat 6.2 all the majors were in there in stories.
The great thing about Linux is that you have several vendors jockying
for position. Mandrake 7.0 was top of it's class, but 7.1 was having
some hiccups. Red Hat 5.0 had the same problem when it came out, but
the other distributions picked up the slack. I can't help wonder if
Red Hat will be coming out with it's own official "Desktop Edition".
> The typical residential magazine is quickly becomming a linux variety
> magazine.
Yep. I remember when Byte first hit the grocery stores. It meant
that "PCs had finally gone mainstream".
> There WERE some windows stories in there, about 1/2 of the magazine
was
> filled with Windows stories.
That's to be expected. Microsoft still buys a lot of advertizing. But
there is more competition across the board, and many of the OEMs are
pushing to establish strong positions in the Linux market.
> But Linux is rapidly taking over the media's attention.
Especially the mainstream media. Microsoft's whole future is uncertain.
The biggest problem is that Microsoft could still face retroactive
enforcement. The judge isn't demanding that Microsoft immediately
turn over it's secret recipies, but the peripheral vendors don't want
to get left out of the Linux market either. They will be offering
USB drivers, FireWire drivers, and DeCSS drivers under terms that
may not be full GPL, but will mediate the interests of OEMs and
customers
while protecting the interests of the recording industry, film industry,
and peripheral makers.
> And there is apparently some kind of massive effort on the Media's
part
> to have Linux moved in everywhere this YEAR.
Basically, there was uncertainty about Microsoft's handling in
the event of the antitrust settlement. Microsoft is unwilling to
accept any terms in which it must admit wrongdoing, and the 17
Attorney's General are unwilling to go back to "Business as Usual".
The DOJ may not have a choice. And if either Al Gore or George W Bush
try to drop the suit now, there are at least 47 states that WILL file
independent lawsuits, and WILL NOT allow the Bush administration to
simply (wrap them up in a big basket and drop them in the Potomic).
The DOJ did Microsoft a huge favor in putting all the suits together,
and now Microsoft is trying to have the negotiators pared down to only
the Federal DOJ. There are about 9 other crazy defenses which are
likely to presume too much.
The bottom line is that when the Judge stayed the order, the OEMs
simply started pushing their Linux products. Microsoft won't have
the co-op leverage it used to have (they used to be able to pull any
ad that showed the Microsoft Logo).
The flip side is that if Microsoft gets too nasty, there is now
a precedent that gives the OEMs the right to speak to federal
and state prosecutors even when otherwise under nondisclosure.
This means corporations will be looking for whistle-blowers.
> My question is WHY this year after all these years?
Microsoft has been fighting in court. The OEMs wanted to make sure
that Microsoft couldn't legally pull the plug on the rest of the
product lines if they offered some lines with Linux.
> Has Kernel 2.2.15 with Gnome 1.2 or Kde 1.0 finally convinced them
> it's ready for everybody's desktop.
That's a big part if it. These days, if the configuration is done
at the factory, and a full compliment of applications is preloaded,
Linux provides incredible value for the buck.
> Are the media experts finally in alignment with what I've been
> saying for 3 years now?
Yes. You aren't the only one. I've been working with the media
on Linux since 1994. I've posted an average of 3 articles a day,
with an average of 5 pages (50 column-inches) since 1994. I have
postings going back to 1984 that covered everything from the early
days of TCP/IP to the formulation of the GPL.
> I'm not against the push. I just wonder why so much right now after
> all this time.
The OEMs were hoping for a more conclusive judgement, but they also
had product lines ready to roll. The stay gives Microsoft the incentive
to delay as much as possible, and gives OEMs, competitors, and customers
the incentive to take decisive actions NOW.
> I remember Microsoft's birth in the 80's and I don't remember hardly
> the press pushing then as it's pushing now. The emphasis back then
> was towards touting Apple's and Mac's capabilties. Microsoft was
> mentioned as a back door player at best then.
Actually, I have some old magazines that go back to 1978 (kilobaud),
and discuss Microsoft and others. One of the more entertaining
pieces was when one issue contained a huge article from Bill Gates
on why BASIC could never be implemented in ROM, and the following
month, out comes the Commodore Pet with Microsoft BASIC in ROM.
MITS had paid for the Port, and Commodore got it.
> Something large is happening THIS year I hadn't expected.
Actually, if you read press releases from IBM, Compaq, Dell, and
HP, it was pretty easy to see where things were going.
IBM announced server products early last year and announced
desktop and laptop products this year.
What makes Linux particularly interesting is that everyone has
seen an MS-Windows screen. But only a very small percentage
of the public have even seen the Linux KDE interface. To a
Windows 95 or Windows 98 user, Linux is doing some pretty incredible
stuff
(switching between screens, live-scrolling, live statistics, real-time
graphs of anything, and by the way which of the three remarkable office
suites would you like to try first. Even the "simple editors" are
equal or better than notepad.
> There is some critical mass mandate from the people I hadn't
> forseen going on right now.
There's been a huge push-pull. Linux users have been talking about
their Linux systems for quite a while, but now it's almost impossible
to sit in a room with over 20 people and not have someone express
some interest in Linux within an hour. It's a bit like talking about
the Web back in 1996. People had heard of the web, and many people
had used the web, but you didn't have 200 million people a day making
purchase decisions averaging $200 per day via the web.
> Linux is rapidly breaking out and gaining new ground.
The PC-Expo was a bit of a milestone. It was the first time the
general public had been able to look at machines with Linux preinstalled
and fully preconfigured. That is a big step. And suddenly you see
$99 text-only mail/web machines that look like typwriters with attitude,
a machine that seems primarily like a web browser, but could be extended
to perform other functions. And you see "personal servers" that can
be connected to palm-terminals.
> And the media blitz is extraordinary. I've never seen this
> much endorsement for any one OS.
Be careful. I got very nervous when, back in April 1999, Bob Young
gleefully announced "The war is over". The fact is that we had
barely established a beach-head (17% of the server market, 2% of the
workstation market). This year, we have the high-ground, air-cover,
full armor (tanks), and a well protected supply line, and we've shut
off the primary fuel supply. But the real battles happen when the
enemy is cornered on his own turf.
What I do see is a very exciting market based on Linux, showing up
at a retailer near you before school starts. Many schools will have
a serious problem justifying why little Alex should pirate a $600
program for is $700 PC (with 2 year MSN contract), instead of
legally obtaining a "ready to go" preconfigured Linux system for
anywhere from $500 to $2000 (depending on storage, storage speed,
and memory).
> I'm pleased and I wonder why all now...
One little side-piece. Shortly after the release of Windows 95,
Microsoft started using MSN and IE "feedback" (history logs, cookies...)
to indentify the most lucrative Internet markets. They "parntered up"
with about 30 of the top publishers, and hired away the top 20 out of
all of them. They found out that the big money was in classified
advertizing. Suddenly Microsoft was putting out car-point, expedia,
financial services, MSNBC, and taking about 20% of the revenue away
from the local newspapers. Since local newspapers are owned by
companies
like Gannet, Scripps-Howard, Gazett-telegraph, and Time-Warner, there
was a big impact at the national level. Suddenly Microsoft was taking
the paper's primary supply of "hard money" (real greenbacks), and
pushing around editors using a substantially smaller amount of "soft
money" (Billy Bucks).
Microsoft owns MSNBC and Gates owns a large stake in Primestar/DirectTV.
which give him some clout. When many stations were airing scenes from
Bill's "let's lie to the judge" game, MSNBC promoted a rumor about an
illegal wire-tape to it's main home-page. The Lewinsky scandal diverted
attention away from coverage of admissions of extortion, bribery,
vandalism, and blackmail, under the justifications of preventing piracy,
protecting itself from a powerful competitor that didn't exist, and
demanding it's (ecxlusive) "Right to Innovate".
Now, the Judge has ruled, the sentence has been set, and the appeals
are likely to go directly to the Supreme court (a whitewash by the
appellate court will result in appeal to the Supreme court and
concurrent
class-action lawsuits by the hundreds). There are too many people who
are tired of Microsoft's lies, legal "weasel clauses", and refusal
to negotiate for anything less than total exhonoration.
Then along comes Linux, looking like Windows on Steroids, and
looking like it's on fire as the screens constantly shift. Add
some goodies like Xeyes, and you have some interesting press coverage.
By the way, if you've never seen video streaming through Linux, you
are in for a treat.
> Charlie
--
Rex Ballard - Open Source Advocate, Internet
I/T Architect, MIS Director
http://www.open4success.com
Linux - 90 million satisfied users worldwide
and growing at over 5%/month!
Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.
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