Christoph Anton Mitterer posted on Wed, 16 Dec 2015 22:59:01 +0100 as excerpted:
>> And there very well might be such a tool... five or ten years down the >> road when btrfs is much more mature and generally stabilized, well >> beyond the "still maturing and stabilizing" status of the moment. > Hmm let's hope btrfs isn't finished only when the next-gen default fs > arrives ;^) [Again, breaking into smaller point replies...] Well, given the development history for both zfs and btrfs to date, five to ten years down the line, with yet another even newer filesystem then already under development, is more being "real", than not. Also see the history in MS' attempt at a next-gen filesystem. The reality is these things take FAR longer than one might think. FWIW, on the wiki I see feature points and benchmarks for v0.14, introduced in April of 2008, and a link to an earlier btree filesystem on which btrfs apparently was based, dating to 2006, so while I don't have a precise beginning date, and to some extent such a thing would be rather arbitrary anyway, as Chris would certainly have done some major thinking, preliminary research and coding, before his first announcement, a project origin in late 2006 or sometime in 2007 has to be quite close. And (as I noted in a parenthetical at my discovery in a different thread), I switched to btrfs for my main filesystems when I bought my first SSDs, in June of 2013, so already a quarter decade ago. At the time btrfs was just starting to remove some of the more dire "experimental" warnings. Obviously it has stabilized quite a bit since then, but due to the oft-quoted 80/20 rule and extensions, where the last 20% of the progress takes 80% of the work, etc... It could well be another five years before btrfs is at a point I think most here would call stable. That would be 2020 or so, about 13 years for the project, and if you look at the similar projects mentioned above, that really isn't unrealistic at all. Ten years minimum, and that's with serious corporate level commitments and a lot more dedicated devs than btrfs has. 12 years not unusual at all, and a decade and a half still well within reasonable range, for a filesystem with this level of complexity, scope, and features. And realistically, by that time, yet another successor filesystem may indeed be in the early stages of development, say at the 20/80 point, 20% of required effort invested, possibly 80% of the features done, but not stabilized. -- Duncan - List replies preferred. No HTML msgs. "Every nonfree program has a lord, a master -- and if you use the program, he is your master." Richard Stallman -- To unsubscribe from this list: send the line "unsubscribe linux-btrfs" in the body of a message to majord...@vger.kernel.org More majordomo info at http://vger.kernel.org/majordomo-info.html
