On 18 June, 19:14, John King <[email protected]> wrote: > It is all rubbish anyway isn't it, how do you increase a £2.00 bus > fare by 7%. It is probably one of those political leaks anyway where > it says 7% and when it turns out to be only 4.5 everyone is please it > is so low. > > John King.
John and all, As I understand it was not a political leak. There was a meeting of the London Assembly and TfL officers were present. They were asked a straight question about the likely level of increase in fares for 2011 based on TfL's expectation of inflation and the planning assumptions. The Mayor adjusted the planning assumption from RPI+1% to RPI+2% last year. TfL apparently expect the July RPI to be round 5% therefore you get to the 7% overall increase. You are quite right that it is not 7% on everything - it never is because of rounding of fares to 10p multiples. The real issue for 2011 will be whether TfL *and* TOC revenue is increasing ahead of budget as the economy recovers or whether it falters. At present income is ahead of budget for TfL, don't know about the TOCs. The main consideration will be Travelcard prices - they hardly budged last year because the government effectively imposed a decrease in rail fares as inflation was negative. Boris shoved fares up by considerably more than inflation - allegedly because of a "Ken generated black hole". I expect everything to go up for 2011 as it is Boris's last chance to do it - I expect the PAYG bus fare will be £1.50 with the cash fare going to £2.20 or £2.30. That will mean a 50% increase in the PAYG bus fare in 3 years - I think that beats any deregulated operator! All TfL PAYG fares on rail services will go up as will cash LUL fares. I also expect all Travelcards to rise too with comensurate increases to PAYG daily caps. I'm not sure whether products will change or if more "tunes" will be played with the times for the peak / off peak time bands. In 2010 there were some sneaky rule changes about how the peak vs off peak cap was set - that trick might be played again. Note this is all my speculation - I have not one jot of insider knowledge. Ultimately it is the Mayor's decision but TfL do all the difficult bit in terms of coming up with the options and estimating the likely increase in income. Paul Corfield -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "London Bus Scene" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/london-bus-scene?hl=en. -- Experience the Devil
