Julian Yap wrote:

You're ignore emerging markets/countries.

I ignore them because they haven't been much of a factor. It would be nice if they became one, but so far, it hasn't been happening. I suspect a couple of reasons are at play. Some emerging countries have bigger problems than where to get a cheap computer. Africa comes to mind. Other areas, like Asia, have a thriving piracy market, and they appear to use Linux as a way to keep the intellectual property police at bay.

My neighbor, a school teacher in the islands, recently returned from an Asian country with thousands of dollars of software that he purchased for about $20. In short, Asia already has free (as in beer) software.

For example, HOSEF provides server technologies for Hawaiian public
schools which would not be able to afford a Windows solution or
otherwise in the first place.

A good thing, too. A couple of questions, though. How much do the efforts of HOSEF actually contribute to the spread of Linux? Second, when such a system is installed, how is it supported? To keep the costs down, would support come from HOSEF, or from a school employee acting as the local geek? If it's the latter, I suspect that he or she would get no extra money for maintaining the new system. Has the group worked something out in that area?

Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable on the economics of Windows
licensing can fill me on what would be the cost to set that up for ~330
students?  We're talking Windows Server 2003 and CALs for users and
students here.

I was on the communications committee for the Episcopal Church in Hawaii when the big thing was setting up our own Intranet. We hired this former classmate of the Bishop to install a server and install the proper software so that the staff could make their own pages for the Intranet. It was an all Microsoft deal.

Over my objections there was no provision made for backups (the cost wasn't justified) and there was no money for training or troubleshooting for when things went wrong. It was the lack of continued funding for support and ongoing training that ultimately sank the project (Nimda didn't help matters either). Had it been Linux or Unix based, it would have failed, too. The Episcopal Church is not rich by any means. What we found, though is that hardware and software costs were relatively low. Support and maintenance was another matter.

Apply this to countries globally which cannot afford Windows on
the desktop or server.  So you're saying there's no growth potential
for Linux in China/India/African countries?

I'm saying there is far less than most Linux folk hope for.

Reason why Windows server market share takes longer to displace is also
because of a company's current support personnel and the CTO who
holds some Microsoft certification and clings to it for dear life.

I don't accept that as the real reason for a minute. It's just another unsupported claim. If you would look to the reasons behind a Microsoft based shop, look to the interlocking pieces of their software offerings.

This will change and is changing.

Unfortunately, I have been hearing this for years, too.

--
Hawaiian Astronomical Society: http://www.hawastsoc.org
HAS Deepsky Atlas: http://www.hawastsoc.org/deepsky

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