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http://www.insanely-great.com/news.php?id=515
Analysts Misreading iMac Sales, Or Dead Accurate?
By Remy Davison, Insanely Great Mac
June 6th 2002
Will iMac sales miss targets as eMac swamps the consumer market?
Following up our earlier story on Morgan Stanley''s caution on iMac shipments this
quarter, some analysts are arguing that iMac sales have slipped - although certainly
not enough to cause alarm.
According to a ZDNet story, Apple may have four to six weeks'' inventory on iMac now,
although this is not an unusually large amount of stock. It is clearly not comparable
with the backlog of all models in the final quarter of 2000, with months of inventory
in the channel, forcing Apple to fire-sale Macs.
This was par for the course for the industry as whole, although in Apple''s case it
meant its first quarterly loss since Jobs had reassumed the helm in 1997.
However, ZDNet quotes Charles Wolf, an analyst from Needham, who sees this as a steady
quarter, and that Apple are building iMac inventory according to plan.
Also quoted in the ZDNet story is financial analyst David Bailey of Gerard Klauer
Mattison, who says April and May are slow months and that the flattening sales curve
during this period merely represents "seasonal factors".
Previously, Morgan Stanley had apparently predicted that iMac sales would be
approximately 235,000 units, versus the 300,000 anticipated by Apple. In ZDNet''s
report, Salomon Smith Barney is reconsidering its original guess of 265,000,
suspecting it may be too optimistic.
Analysis: Our take? They''re probably all wrong - the question is by how much.
And how much will eMac sales affect iMac? Have you been holding off an iMac purchase,
waiting for an ed eMac? Bottom line: analysts like unit growth better than they like
steady year-over-year profits. This tells them the user base is expanding, even if
gross profit per unit falls.
Fact is, Apple makes almost 25% of all its sales to education. And that''s where the
eMac comes in. A reduction in iMac sales was to be expected, once initial demand was
satisfied. eMac will hit schools in volume by July, but Apple needs consumers to opt
for the classier, pricier iMac over the reborn Classic, the eMac - if only to keep Mac
volume and profits up.
Watch those eMac v. iMac sales numbers. Love it or hate it, eMac will tell us an awful
lot about the way the Mac market is heading.
Post your comments at:
http://www.insanely-great.com/news.php?id=515
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