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https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/MAPREDUCE-2162?page=com.atlassian.jira.plugin.system.issuetabpanels:comment-tabpanel&focusedCommentId=12927559#action_12927559
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Matei Zaharia commented on MAPREDUCE-2162:
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This sounds pretty good, Joydeep. Just wanted to make one comment: even if we 
use, say, then 90th percentile to determine the "normal" range for tasks, it 
may not mean that we'll speculate 10% of tasks all the time. The reason for 
this is the other speculation criteria -- speculative lag and R < M. In 
particular, if we let each task run for some amount of time (say half the 
average task length) before deciding on whether to speculate it, then it's 
likely that even for many of these 90th percentile tasks, R will be less than M 
so we will not want to speculate. This might be enough to get a good 
speculation algorithm (that only speculates a few percent of the tasks and 
almost always picks ones that will beat their original tasks) without having to 
do the cost-benefit estimation at first.

> speculative execution does not handle cases where stddev > mean well
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>                 Key: MAPREDUCE-2162
>                 URL: https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/MAPREDUCE-2162
>             Project: Hadoop Map/Reduce
>          Issue Type: Bug
>            Reporter: Joydeep Sen Sarma
>
> the new speculation code only speculates tasks whose progress rate deviates 
> from the mean progress rate of a job by more than some multiple (typically 
> 1.0) of stddev. stddev can be larger than mean. which means that if we ever 
> get into a situation where this condition holds true - then a task with even 
> 0 progress rate will not be speculated.
> it's not clear that this condition is self-correcting. if a job has thousands 
> of tasks - then one laggard task, inspite of not being speculated for a long 
> time, may not be able to fix the condition of stddev > mean.
> we have seen jobs where tasks have not been speculated for hours and this 
> seems one explanation why this may have happened. here's an example job with 
> stddev > mean:
> DataStatistics: count is 6, sum is 1.7141054797775723E-8, sumSquares is 
> 2.9381575958035014E-16 mean is 2.8568424662959537E-9 std() is 
> 6.388093955645905E-9

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