At 13:47 16/01/00 -0000, George wrote:
>It is clear that the Chechen war is absorbing substantial military
resources. Yet the
>central government in Russia does not appear to be making the necessary
progress for a
>swift victory. Clearly there are significant potential dangers for the
Russian state under
>this scenario. Should the war continue to soak military resources the
opportunity may open
>up for other regional powers to strike out against the Russian state in a
struggle for
>independence. Should several such nationalist wars break out the Russian
state would be
>sorely tried to vanquish them. Under such circumstances it is quite
conceivable that the
>Russian state and economy could disintegrate.
>
>Given a war on several fronts from nationalist movements the opportunities
for Washington
>and even other large powers to exploit the situation would present itself.
This helps
>explain why the Russian government has been putting greater emphasis on
its nuclear
>arsenal. The weaker the conventional military becomes and the state the
more the nuclear
>blackmail will be used as a defensive threat against potential incursion
by imperialist
>powers.
The US must be even happier that Russia is making the surrounding states so
wary of its intentions. It is in the interests of the US to protest about
the attacks on the Chechens but not as much as in the case of East Timor,
to force the army to withdraw. Instead if Putin cleans up his government so
that the oligarchs are not too corrupt and above all co-operate with the
IMF and western banking, then the US will not pull the rug from under the
chauvinist Russian regime. It does not want a socialistic one in its place.
The Chechens will just have to pay the price.
Meanwhile there is a clipping from another list. I cannot speak for the
status of Peoples Voice of Canada, but the clip is a relatively concise and
apparently relatively accurate summary of the oil issue.
Chris Burford
London
____________
(This article is from the Jan. 1-15/2000 issue of People's Voice, Canada's
leading communist newspaper. Articles can be reprinted free if the source
is credited. Subscription rates in Canada: $25/year, or $12 low income
rate; for U.S. readers - $25 US per year; other overseas readers - $25 US
or $35 CDN per year. Send to: People's Voice, 706 Clark Drive, Vancouver,
Canada, V5L 3J1.)
AS BORIS YELTSIN'S second war against Chechnya grinds on, world public
opinion is growing increasingly alarmed by the terrible consequences for
Chechen civilians, but also at the rising tensions between Russia and the
USA, fuelled by Yeltsin's latest nuclear threats. Clearly there is far more
at stake in this war than first meets the eye.
As with other conflicts in the region during this century, the key to
understanding this struggle is oil. Chechnya and Dagestan are among the
former Soviet territories near the Caspian Sea, with its vast sources of
oil and natural gas. More than a century ago, the nearby city of Baku,
capital of Azerbaijan, became the centre of a booming oil industry which
was greatly expanded during the Soviet era. This industry was a rich prize
desired by Hitler during the Second World War, but the Red Army blocked the
Nazis before they could occupy the Caucasus in 1942.
Since the capitalist counter-revolution which broke up the USSR in 1991, a
consortium of 11 oil monopolies from the USA and Europe have gained control
of more than 50 percent of the oil reserves in the area, estimated at a
potential worth of $4 trillion. US imperialism has steadily worked to
advance its interests around the Caspian Sea, now bordered by five
countries: the former Soviet republics of Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
and Kazakhstan, as well as Iran.
The Russian government fears that the CIA and the Pentagon are engineering
the de facto colonisation of these and other resource-rich former Soviet
territories, such as by encouraging the Islamic separatist movement in
Chechnya.
"The national interests of the U.S. correspond to a scenario in which an
armed conflict is constantly smouldering in the North Caucasus," Russian
Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev said in a recent news conference. Russia's
Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Avdeyev said a few days later that the
country may be heading for a direct conflict with the United States.
"The prospects of potentially enormous hydrocarbon reserves is part of the
allure of the Caspian region... New transportation routes will be necessary
to carry Caspian oil and gas to world markets," according to a December
1998 report from the United States Energy Information Administration.
The USA wants a new Caspian oil pipeline to bypass the existing lines
routed through Russia, which were designed to link the Soviet Union
internally. On Nov. 18, President Clinton and Energy Secretary Bill
Richardson met with the presidents of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Tajikstan and
Turkey to announce plans to construct a new $2.4 billion oil pipeline from
Baku to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, bypassing Russia. This would
effectively turn the Caspian into an "American lake."
Such a scenario would drastically weaken the geo-political influence of the
new capitalist rulers of Yeltsin's Russia, undercutting their drive to
exploit and dominate the former Soviet republics and autonomous regions in
Central Asia. In turn, the emerging bourgeois cliques of those areas want
to strike their own separate deals with the imperialist powers, cutting
Russia out of the picture.
The Russian ruling class is using the war to whip up ultra-nationalist,
chauvinist feelings among working people, to divert attention from the
deepening economic crisis heading into parliamentary elections, and then
presidential elections next June. Their aim is to weaken public support for
the communist and left forces, and to strengthen the bourgeois parties and
Putin's election prospects.
One critical response has come from the Russian Communist Workers Party,
which said in a recent statement that "The real reason for the [war in
Chechnya] is the annihilation of the socialist society. Before, power and
law were directed toward the equality of people on a social and national
level. However, at present a society is being built on the basis of overt
inequality and property. This has evoked the meanest tendencies amongst
people, a cruel power struggle, the separatism of national elites, and,
centrally, the principle of divide and conquer. The origins for this bloody
tragedy are the ruling regime and its policy of restoring capitalism in
Russia."
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