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Hallo Gary, I had not heard of US Navy movements - but doubt they will intervene (if they do they will certainly inflame matters much further throughout the region). It seems the regime is struggling to find any sensible actions to take - and presently is just relying on the hope that demonstrators will gradually run out of steam. In any prolonged demonstrative action this tendency is always there unless there are daily actions, successes or whatever to encourage everybody - and this is undoubtedly a problem for those contributing to leadership of the revolt, with which so far they have been dealing with extremely well. But the regime is still living in hopes .... Differentiation within the army is also still on hold during this period, but, particularly: since most of the lower ranks in the army are conscripts, so that many will have friends and relatives that they may anticipate to be among the throng of crowds, it seems very likely that the higher echelons of the army are well aware that mutiny would be a very strong possibility against any repressive action they were to ask the army to undertake - so they too are playing a waiting game, as an army mutiny would bring a rapid end to them and the regime. For the weeks ahead - maintenance of numbers in the square and in frequent demonstrations in other cities of Egypt, on the one hand; and the attitude of and differentiation within the army, on the other, are going to remain as the crucial factors. Long live the Egyptian revolution !! Paddy -----Original Message----- From: marxism-bounces+e.c.apling=btinternet....@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu [mailto:marxism-bounces+e.c.apling=btinternet....@greenhouse.economics.utah. edu] On Behalf Of Gary MacLennan Sent: 10 February 2011 9:06 AM To: e.c.apl...@btinternet.com Subject: Re: [Marxism] Aspects of the Egyptian Revolution ====================================================================== Rule #1: YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. ====================================================================== Hi Paddy, yes the situation in Egypt is very complex indeed. The entry of US warships and talk of Marines being sent there has added even more complications. The Israeli site debka.com is well worth reading if only to enjoy the hysteria being generated in Israeli ranks at the very thought of Arab democracy. The outbreak of strikes, some of which are overtly political, may well be the circuit breaker that was needed to get the Army to break up. As far as I can see the elite have only the massacre card to play now. The delay in playing it for whatever reason, means I believe that even if they do turn the Army or sections of it on the demonstrators that they might not succeed in putting down the Revolution. The Shah too let loose the helicopter gunships and that was the end of him. Of course I hope there will be no massacre. My preferred option would be for workers soldiers and students to get together to form a revolutionary government. In the current climate that is not an impossibility. I still do not understand why someone in the elite has not packed Mubarak off and gone with El Baradei. Timing is crucial in counter revolutions as well as in revolutions. The Americans have mistimed this hopelessly. Their initial reactions seemed to have been guided by the sole criterion of the what they thought was good for Israel. The decision to go with Suleiman as the successor was quite simply stupid. The use of Wisner as a mediator was also truly dumb. Meanwhile the dictatorship has made concessions which are all too little and too late. The one thing that Gibbs in Washington has said that makes sense is that the Egyptian government does not understand what is happening in the streets. The courage and elan of the demonstrators is absolutely astonishing. They now have spread out of Tahrir Square to surround parliament. Everyone now understands what is at stake here. Mubarak I think is playing on that with his talk that it is either me or chaos. But his very stubbornness has closed down the options that the Egyptian and American rulers have at their disposal. Now their is talk of workers' councils. Oh joy! Long live the Egyptian revolution! Onwards to the Arab Revolution and then the ruling class of the world will tremble. comradely Gary ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu Set your options at: http://greenhouse.economics.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/e.c.apling%40bt internet.com ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu Set your options at: http://greenhouse.economics.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
