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Fred: Gadhafi's reported victory in the latest round of the sea-saw battle for Zawiya indicates that a stalemate is hardening. I don't think we should exclude the possibility that the military morale and political will of the insurgents are being undermined by leaders who tell them that the US will break the stalemate and place the leaders in power. Dave: I don't think Zawiya indicates anything about a stalemate. Zawiya is near Tripoli and to the west. What is remarkable here is that the revolutionaries have held out for so long against Quadhafi's best forces despite being so poorly organized and equipped. The main revolutionary forces are advancing on Tripoli from the east, so far successfully. Fred: This leaves out a living possibility. That is, that Chavez's offer is being rejected so firmly because the section of the titular leadership that decides such questions today is relying on Washington offers them a surer, and, from their class standpoint, safer road to power (for them, not the people in revolt, or the rest of the masses, either) than one that does not rely on imperialist power. Dave: If I were a Libyan revolutionary I would not trust Chavez as an arbitrator because of the way he took Quadhafi's side in this pretty early on and because of his ostentatious support for Quadhafi in the past. I would also find the notion of Quadhafi escaping the justice of the people to be unacceptable and so any settlement with Quadhafi no matter who mediated would be out except as a last resort. Is it possible that some in the Benghazi government have ulterior motives in not accepting mediation? Yes it is. But I would argue that actually there is no way they could accept mediation due to popular will. Their popular legitimacy (to the extent that they have it) would be undermined if went into negotiations. Some at least in the provisional government in Benghazi have called for air support but have refused boots on the ground. I can understand their reasoning here even though I think it is mistaken. It is also unclear how widely that sentiment is shared. The fact that they limit the call to aerial intervention tells me that intervention would probably be controversial. In regards to Chavez - does Chavez really think he can get Quadhafi to leave? How clever/stupid is Chavez being? What does he know about Quadhafi that we might not? I don't see it as 'wholly positive' as you do. It will be far better for the revolution if they can bring down Quadhafi themselves and Chavez's offer could likely (maybe already has) rebound on the Bolivarian project in some dangerous ways. Fred: But isn't it possible that those who are calling for US air strikes and air cover -- that is, for the US imperialists to break the stalemate and place the titular opposition at the head of government -- are doing so out of class consciousness, not simply confused "good" (from our standpoint) intentions. Dave: I wouldn't doubt it. Reports indicate the current provisional government in Benghazi is made up primarily of professionals, lawyers, etc. At the moment this revolution is basically democratic in character. Real class struggles probably won't start to really emerge until after Quadhafi is gone. Right now everyone is focused on getting rid of him. ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu Set your options at: http://greenhouse.economics.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
