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I think: There are two main factors which determine the eventual outcome of revolutions. The FIRST, obviously, is that the masses feel that it is impossible for them to continue to exist as things are. They feel they must TAKE ACTION. The SECOND, also obviously, is that the "powers that be" are also in a ?muddle? The THIRD, which tends to be the ultimate determinant of the final outcome- is the question whether the ARMY - the sole (or at least the main) controllers of lethal weapons will continue to obey the orders of their superiors, supporters of the old regime. This third was the crucial question in the earlier demonstrations in Tahir square in February/March - in which the old regime was careful to issue orders that might not be obeyed, so that rank and file and junior officers were not forced to reveal their attitudes to their superiors. Comrades, really try to think yourselves into the position of those behind the guns. They are not all our enemies; they have all the same problems as we have - compounded by their control under military law and the threat of punishment even for a word out of turn, let alone a refusal to obey the order of a superior - and to act AGAINST a superior order is likely to result in summary execution without even a warrant. REALISE that: for the junior ranks of the army, orders of superiors may, some of them, seemed a little peculiar, - but (e.g. in the earlier Tahir Square demonstrations) - if they do not cause any army sqaudies [UK English = lower ranks] to be involved in confrontations against the mass of the demonstrators, lower ranks can remain happy with their role - they are not forced to make any decisions. Just obey orders, as usual (however ridiculous those orders seem to be - but that's what army life is all about - obeying all the time - obeying orders that, you think, can only have been drafted by complete idiots - but which are not so completely stupid and obviously against OUR interest in the future as to be worth disputing (bearing completely in mind that if we object our superiors will put us up for a court martial - and even condemnation to the firing squad). But the FIST object of the February Movement has been won. Mubarek had lost his power. NOW we are in the next stage. BUT the factors remain the same. The ABSOLUTELY crucial factor for the present and future stages of the Arab Spring are the relationships between the civilian leadership (or just the masses generally) and the armed forces. It is absolutely CRUCIAL that both leaderships and masses continue cordial relationships with the lower ranks (INCLUDING lower ranks - and even sometimes even higher to at least Capt., Major, and at times even higher ranks). All these are CRUCIAL to success; but is so easy to regard these potential allies as enemies - and this is the MAIN DANGER: Forget all your prior categories of "pro-imperialist", "anti-working class", and all those other categories we are so used to using as "explanations". THESE categories are all in a state of flux - they are IRRELEVANCES. Convincing EACH INDIVIDUAL is what everything depends on !! In Libya this is particularly confounded in that the majority of the regime forces are MERCENARIES - not just Libyans, with the future of themselves and their families (if they have any they have regard for) at stake - but just enrolled in support of the regime for the money they can make. BUT they still don't want to lose their lives .... and their peculiar motives are subject to development and change ... So much of our comments are also irrelevant to the situation on the ground, - but I do feel that much of what I am trying to say in really important for all to consider and bear in mind in our discussions. Comradely greetings, Paddy http://apling.freeservers.com ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu Set your options at: http://greenhouse.economics.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
