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I think this pertains more to Israel than the U.S. The latter is not
driving towards a war right now, IMO, but is trying to keep in front of the
actions of the former, who are almost certainly behind the recent string of
terrorist actions within Iran, including the latest assassination of an
Iranian nuclear scientist. If you observe carefully, the current U.S.
Administration has been unusually critical of certain Israeli moves
("unusual" relative to the 'all Israel all the time' norm of U.S. policy)
such as the expansion of settlements, and Clinton condemned the
assassination, this AFAIK for the first time. Now they could be lying, but
it is more likely a case of lying about their knowledge of the Israeli
terror/sabotage campaign rather than about their own direct involvement.
The problem that Obama faces is that Israel might decide to vote against
him in retaliation for those very limited criticisms in an election year,
with a unilateral strike against Iran. No doubt the whole coterie of
neo-cons are looking forward to another October Surprise, and the prospect
of any visible U.S. naval losses right before November might do the trick,
while providing another neat little "Pearl Harbor moment" for the benefit
of Israel. The danger of war is truly high this year.
Indeed, this situation looks like the #1 threat to Obama's reelection, for
otherwise the "vulture capitalist" Romney provides the perfect "designated
loser" foil for another fake populist campaign against this veritable
poster child of all that is perceived as wrong with the U.S. economy.
Obama has served his ruling class well, and outside the neo-con sector -
closely associated with imperialism's military-industrial sector, of which
Israel is virtually a wholly owned subsidiary - and allied wingnut useful
idiot ideologues, I don't see any real ruling coalition lining up against
him as they did behind Reagan against Carter in 1980. But then, all the
more reason for a desperate launch of torpedoes against Obama by Israel,
the Gambler State. Even more as the Republican elected by Israeli actions
would be heavily beholden to the neo-cons, enabling these to exercise the
sort of exclusive influence on this classic American Zionist - it was the
Mormons who first declared the U.S.A. as the new Zion in the mid-19th
century, an ideological device that permitted the settlement of Utah beyond
the territories prescribed by the theology of John Smith - that they
wielded on Baby Bush.
Nevertheless Obama's unelection would be fine by me, as I view him as the
"greater evil" in this election, compared to the prospect of a domestically
weak Republican Admin., compensating with an aggressive neo-con style
foreign policy as its only cache' with a U.S. populace that has yet to
throw off its ideological support for imperialism even as the domestic
material basis of that support deepens its erosion. A greater evil because
first and foremost, the African-American people can begin their own
mobilization against an economic crisis whose impact upon them has been the
most severe of the post war. This all the more as the unelection of Obama
will be seen as a racial slap in the face. Hopefully it will be the last
straw, for the relative absence of African Americans as a movement (I am
not referring to individual involvement) has been an important net drag on
the struggle against the crisis. We have to hand it to our ruling class on
this one, opting "just in time" for the "correct face" that would
demobilize a historically key source of militancy and opposition to the
coming economic disaster, one that has been a catastrophe for African
Americans by almost any measure. A mass return to the fight will give our
side a great boost.
That's the case despite the downside of war and suffering in the Middle
East and another bout of militarist hysteria in the U.S. These are not new
phenomena and are calculable. If the neo-cons wriggle back in the saddle,
their high risk policies can only do further damage to the position of U.S.
imperialism, because they won't be able to go "full Hitler" in an effort to
decisively alter the strategic situation in their favor - the ultimate
logic of the neo-con ideology - in the face of the opposition of a Pentagon
officer corps that currently enjoys high status in U.S. society. Unlike
the interwar German counterpart, who opportunistically saw the Nazis as a
way to regain the status lost after WW1.
So in the balance, a Obama loss is a net plus under present conditions.
-Matt
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