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Thanks Marvin, I see no problem with any of those propositions below,
though I stress I'm no authority in Ukraine. You also have plenty of
respect from me and thanks for all the useful discussion on this issue,
in particular your two-part series on the pressure on Russia to settle
and the pressure on the EU to settle. My view is that there is far too
much at stake economically for both the EU and Russia (and both wings of
the Ukrainian oligarchy who ultimately need both) for them to want the
conflict to blow out in a region such as Ukraine. I believe the deal
hammered out by Russia, Germany, France and Poland, and both wings of
the Ukrainian oligarchy, was their ideal solution from a class
perspective. That's what I liked about Kagarlitsky's article too.
Basically class analysis of the 'bigger picture'. That oligarchic deal
was basically thrown out by a mixture of genuine, progressive
anti-oligarchic revulsion from the street, however politically confused,
and the by the fascists, who have their own goals separate from both the
genuine mass movement and from the Orange oligarchy and the EU. As the
most organised force, they managed to ride that movement. In my limited
view, I think that means both that they are a danger, and that it does
not mean the whole movement can be canned as fascistic.
Does the US have a different interest to the EU, as represented by "fuck
the EU" Nuland? Perhaps. Perhaps even their people were the third
component that broke the EU-Russia-oligarchy deal. I don't know. But
even if so, the difference is probably only relative. The US prefers to
be in charge of Europe and its manouvures via NATO, rather than watching
EU-Russia collaboration without them. Ultimately, however, the US is
more interested in its ongoing dealing with Putin to try to contain the
Syrian revolution and other issues than in plunging into some mad
conflict over the Ukraine. The relatively more hawkish (compared to EU)
US is a positioning thing.
-----Original Message-----
From: Marv Gandall
Michael:
You're someone who has my respect, and I'd be interested in knowing
the extent of your agreement with the following propositions.
1. We support left-wing governments, parties and movements against the
US and European capitalist states. If there is a confrontation between
these states - as, in this case, between Putin's Russia and
Yatsenyuk's Ukraine, backed by the US and EU - there is no
justification to support either side.
2. The centre-right parties from the mainly Ukrainian-speaking regions
which head the government enjoy more public support at this juncture
than Svoboda and the other parties further to their right.
3. The great majority of the Maidan protesters, with varying degrees
of political understanding and commitment, were and remain supporters
of the centre-right and far right parties, while the socialist and
liberal left do not have their own parties nor any comparable
influence in Ukrainian politics.
4. The precise relationship of forces between the centre-right and far
right parties can't be quantified and the direction of events can't be
forecast, although they have provoked fierce speculation on the
international left, mirrored on the list. For example, Kagarlitsky's
articles and the interview with the radical Maidan activist named
Denis in recent issues of Links made a deep impression on me but were
repudiated by Louis, who has relied on other sources.
5. Though it's dominated discussion, the relationship of forces between
the centre-right and the far right is of secondary importance. What's
decisive is that there is no left-wing government, party, or movement to
support, as in Greece and Venezuela, and should be reflected in how we
approach the issue in both tone and substance.
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