******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ******************** #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. *****************************************************************
Lou P wrote that the idea to annex the Crimea 'goes back for more than a decade' < http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/observers-say-russia-had-crimea-plan-for-years/496936.html >. It's occurred to me that if the Crimea fell into Russian hands, then it would be rather awkward for Ukraine to join NATO if a sizeable chunk of the country's territory, and one that contains a major naval base, fell under the control of another country, and a none-too-friendly one at that. So on that basis, taking over the Crimea was an insurance policy against Ukraine's joining NATO. I wouldn't be surprised if this was long on the Russian state agenda. As for Eastern Ukraine, I doubt if Putin had any plan actually to annex Donestk, Lugansk or any other part. What Putin wants is to be able to influence to his advantage Ukrainian politics. Having already with taking over the Crimea removed from Ukraine a hefty number of people who consistently voted in large numbers for pro-Russian candidates, it doesn't make much sense to remove several million more people, of whom half (and probably more) also consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates. I suspect that the pro-Russian elements in Eastern Ukraine have gone a lot further than Putin would have liked. He would have liked some kind of autonomy that nonetheless allowed the population to vote in Ukrainian elections. What is emerging in Eastern Ukraine is similar to what has happened in Moldavia with the Transdniestrian set-up: a de facto independent state. This situation is not in Russia's interest in Ukraine. The pro-Russian elements have forced Putin's hand; if he abandons them they will collapse and he'll lose everything, in supporting them he is obliged to permit them to call the agenda. If we get an independent Eastern Ukrainian state, or if the area is incorporated into Russia as with the Crimea, then Putin's chances of influencing politics in Ukraine will be vastly reduced and for a very long time. What does this mean for politics in Ukraine? I feel that it will ensure that right-wing Ukrainian parties will have a big audience for their revanchist ideas. Despite the romantic views of some people on the left, the pro-Russian regions will not be run by some left-wing regime but by Russian nationalists with all which that implies. There will be a refugee problem as those unwilling to live in this region will move out or may be expelled. Politics in Ukraine as a whole will move rightwards as nationalist trends of both a Ukrainian and Russian brand will take root in the seeming absence of political currents that can transcend nationalist agendas. Paul F _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
