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I largely agree with Ioannis Aposperites and made similar points in my
original article back at the start of April:
https://rdln.wordpress.com/2015/04/07/irish-society-and-politics-and-the-referendum-on-gay-marriage/

I think in country-after-country what we've seen is that 'more-market'
economics means m ore regulation of the working class and less regulation
of people's private lives.

The victory in Ireland (as elsewhere) is partly the product of many, many
years of campaigning, partly the product of a new generation with much more
open views on homosexuality and gay rights, partly the product of how
people actually live now, and partly the product of changes in the economic
workings of capitalism.  And all these things are connected and interact.

A sizeable chunk of the most anti-working class forces in Irish society not
only supported a 'yes' vote but went out and campaigned for it.  A rake of
big businesses were involved in Business Says Yes: the see it as very good
for business.

The four parties in the south which have imposed absolutely ruthless
austerity upon the working class since the meltdown in Ireland - Fianna
Fail & Greens; Fine Gael & Labour) all backed a 'yes' vote and campaigned
for it.

The police federation, for the first time in history, took a public
position on a referendum question and supported a 'yes' vote.

In my opinion, the old Catholic-aligned socially-reactionary establishment
has been edged aside by a new, socially liberal establishment which is
viciously anti-working class, but pro-gay rights, pro-women's equality,
anti-racist (in a formal, institutional way).

Stuart M raised the issue of abortion.  I think this will be a harder fight
because the establishment is much more divided on this issue.  Sections of
the new liberal establishment are actually personally quite devout
Catholics and far less likely to support abortion rights, although they
have certainly moved the goalposts a little bit on the issue.  I also think
a chunk of people who support gay marriage do so because they identify with
the idea of equality: there's an attachment to notions of equality which I
think is quite embedded in the Irish (nationalist) masses.  Whereas they
wouldn't see abortion as being connected to equality.

Nevertheless, even on abortion, there has been a shift.  In the early
1990s, the Catholic Church started to lose referenda on abortion.  In fact,
this was their first series of defeats.  They lost three referenda in the
early 1990s, where they had tried to get 'loopholes' in their
constitutional ban of abortion closed:

I tend to think the dominant political parties and maybe the dominant
section of the bourgeoisie would be quite happy to *somewhat* liberalise
the law on abortion but not go so far as legislating for the right to
choose.

Australia and the USA are actually a bit odd on the gay marriage issue.
They're kind of out of kilter with the rest of the developed capitalist
world.  While this is often the case with the US, it's a bit more
surprising with Australia.  However, I tend to think that when Abbott is
replaced, the next Liberal leader will be pro-gay marriage, just like the
Tory leaders in Britain and New Zealand.  And if the ALP hasn't already got
a pro-gay marriage leader it will soon have one too.  (I think 3 out of the
last 4 Tory leaders in NZ are pro-gay marriage.)

Phil
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