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WSJ, June 6 2015
Draft Dodgers Worsen Syrian Army's Woes --- Neighborhood sweeps, road
checks used by regime forces to catch men avoiding service
by Raja Abdulrahim
Soon after the military police came looking for the 25-year-old computer
engineer at his family's home, he fled Syria.
He bribed a security officer to briefly remove his name from the list of
men wanted for mandatory military service and paid a taxi driver $1,000
to drive him across the border into Lebanon.
Like many young men living in government-controlled parts of Syria, he
had been putting off conscription by paying $2,000 a year, hoping to
avoid becoming cannon fodder for a military that has been hemorrhaging
soldiers, either by death or defection, after more than four years of war.
The reluctance of young men like him to join has left the Syrian army
even weaker as it fights a multifront war. Instead, it has pulled
inward, focusing on protecting parts of the country that are essential
to President Bashar al-Assad's seat of power, say Middle East diplomats
and a Syrian government official.
That weakness was most apparent during recent defeats in the province of
Idlib and the city of Palmyra; rebels and opposition groups said regime
forces withdrew quickly rather than fight a prolonged battle.
Monitoring groups and diplomats estimate the Syrian regime retains
control of about a quarter of the country, with the rest held by the
extremist Islamic State, myriad opposition rebels and Kurdish groups.
"Every man in Syria . . . tries his best not to serve in the army," the
young engineer said. "He can't imagine himself being a part of what's
happening, part of a long war that doesn't seem to have an end."
Finding that many men aren't answering their conscription notices, the
regime has for months been aggressively sweeping up men in neighborhood
raids, at road checkpoints and at border crossings -- and sending them
to the front lines, according to residents and rebels, who have captured
many of these draftees on the battlefield.
"I don't want to be a part of a conflict which is for a single man's
benefit," said a 29-year-old who has a good job in Damascus but is
making plans to flee the country anyway. "This is a conflict that we,
the normal people, have nothing to do with."
Since the start of the antigovernment uprising in 2011, the military
hasn't allowed any soldiers to be discharged, according to a brigadier
general in Homs province.
More recently there has been a crackdown on granting delays in military
service. One officer was executed by the regime because of the large
number of postponements he allowed in exchange for bribes, the brigadier
general said.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates the army has declined
to 200,000 soldiers and officers, half the size it was before the uprising.
They are aided by about 80,000 militia fighters.
Ali Haidar, Syria's reconciliation minister, conceded that the army
wasn't capable of defending every part of the country, such as the
remote city of Palmyra. The regime faced sharp criticism in the wake of
its rapid takeover last month by Islamic State militants. But Mr. Haidar
said defending the desert outpost would have taken a large toll on
Syrian forces.
"The wide deployment of the Syrian military is being studied anew," he
said. The aim is "to draw primary defensive lines to achieve victories
that are more strategic than protecting remote areas and areas that are
empty of residents and of economic life."
The dwindling ranks are apparent even in the capital. Security
checkpoints, which used to be manned by young conscripts and were an
important show of the government's control, are now staffed by
middle-aged men and sometimes even women.
The National Defense Forces and popular committees -- militias turned
into official security branches -- tempt recruits with $100 monthly
salaries and special services at businesses and bakeries, where people
line up for hours just to buy bread.
But when weighed against the multiple defeats the armed forces have
suffered and videos of soldiers killed at the hands of rebels or Islamic
State, the incentives have proved less than convincing to many.
As a result, there appears to be a growing dependence on foreign
fighters, who have played an important role ever since the militant
Shiite group Hezbollah helped retake in 2013 the strategic town of
Qusayr along the Lebanese border.
Recently, Syria asked Iran to send 100,000 fighters, according to the
diplomat who regularly visits Syria. The request was denied because Iran
feared turning the conflict into an open sectarian war, he said.
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