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We Must Stand With Greece For The Sake Of Europe by John Palmer Social Europe, June 22 <http://www.socialeurope.eu/2015/06/we-must-stand-with-greece-for-the-sake-of-europe> . . . The emerging New Left in Europe has broken with the nationalist rhetoric and outlook which has such roots in other parts of the political spectrum. The likes of Syriza and Podemos and similar trends in other European countries are the natural allies – not the opponents – of a strong and united democratic Europe. Should they fail, much darker forces of the nationalist and fascist far right stand to exploit popular disillusion. If a compromise is to be reached it must not only consist of a renewed commitment by Syriza to reform of the corrupt and clientelist economic and political system in Greece. It must also include a firm and unmistakeable commitment to reduce the mountain of debt under which the Greek economy struggles for life. It is not good enough for Brussels to talk of “irresponsible borrowing.” It needs to recall that the “irresponsible lenders” in northern Europe are equally guilty. Secondly the summit today must be seen to bring forward radical and comprehensive proposals for a major stimulus to the lacklustre economic recovery throughout the European Union. This is the time for a major investment drive to make Europe’s failing transport, energy, digital, educational and social infrastructure fit for the second decade of the 21st century. Given the elementary injustice of the Greek case, almost complete absence of elementary solidarity from the major social democratic parties in the EU, has been stunning. After some initially friendly rhetoric after Syriza’s election victory, these parties have carefully kept their distance from anything which might look like support for Athens. The insistence of the leaders of the German SPD in standing shoulder to shoulder with the Merkel coalition in refusing Greek appeals for debt relief has only underlined how far they have moved from their rhetoric in opposition. We hear nothing now about the case for Euro bonds to help finance a major, coordinated European Union economic stimulus. The silence of the European centre-left generally about the insanity of adding further austerity – and inevitably further debt on the shoulders of the Greeks – is terribly eloquent. Could it possibly be that these parties, already grappling with what seems a long-term trend of electoral decline, want to see the upstart New Left in Europe marginalised before they become a potent political threat? Given the hostile balance of forces facing the Greek government at the summit in Brussels today, perhaps the best which can be hoped for will be an agreement to – once again – “kick the can further down the road.” This could take the form of a short term (two years?) agreement to provide financial relief which promising future action to stimulate economic growth – through the much heralded Juncker Plan named after the Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker. This would be welcome in so far as it defers any threat of a Greek default, or a further step towards the collapse of the Greek banking system and the prospect of Grexit. But to make any sense in the longer term, any short-term relief package must also include a clear commitment to debt relief. Perhaps the best hope for sanity to prevail today is that the penny is dropping, that a Grexit, while it might not trigger an immediate financial Armageddon, would fundamentally alter the permanent nature of the single currency commitment. The next time the financial markets turned their attention to another Euro-area economy in trouble, all talk of the permanent character of the Euro would be laughed out of court. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ John Palmer was the European Editor of The Guardian and then Founder and Political Director of the European Policy Centre. Five things you should know about what’s happening in Greece by Roderick Cobley rs21, June 22 (Revolutionary Socialism in the 21st Century, Britain) <http://rs21.org.uk/2015/06/22/five-things-you-should-know-about-whats-happening-in-greece> . . . As Greece’s creditors, the ‘Troika’ has from the start been determined to use the country’s plight to enact an experiment in radical neoliberalism – one highly reminiscent of the ‘debt crisis’ imposed on many countries in the global south in the 1980s. This January, the Greek people rebelled via the ballot box, electing the radical left Syriza. They stood on a promise both to remain within the Eurozone and scrap the austerity measures – a combination many argued from the beginning was impossible. Since then, the Syriza government has been engaged in a tortuous and prolonged process of negotiations, during which Athens and its creditors have moved ever further apart. The fear on both sides is that Greece will be forced out of the Eurozone – a so-called ‘Grexit’ – with unknowable consequences for the whole of Europe. The casual observer may be forgiven for feeling that this process is an impenetrable one. However, in reality the situation can be boiled down to a handful of key features. They show both the historic opportunities it presents, and also the grave dangers. 1. Syriza has compromised hugely, but not sold out In February, the Syriza government signed a short team deal with its creditors. This was a huge climb-down, and many on the left rightly opposed it. However, it was worded in such a way as to leave much “creative ambiguity”, as Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis put it at the time. Furthermore, it did not give the creditors all they wanted . Syriza clearly believed they had won a breathing space, but subsequent events show that the troika saw this agreement as equivalent to capitulation. During subsequent discussions, Syriza have shown a willingness to compromise further, but have retained their ‘red lines’ of opposing any further pension cuts or increased VAT on basic goods. They have even unilaterally delayed payments due to the IMF as a protest against continued demands for austerity. At the time of writing, Syriza’s leadership appears prepared to risk a forced ‘Grexit’ from the Eurozone rather than capitulate entirely. 2. The Troika is not interested in any compromise Despite Syriza having moderated its position, the EU are rejecting everything that falls short of full scale austerity. Varoufakis’ proposals to a meeting of the Eurogroup on 18 June promised extensive privatisation and market liberalisation. Despite this, they were summarily dismissed because they did not include specific measures on pensions and VAT and because of Athens’ plans to restore collective bargaining rights. 3. The Syriza left are resisting and gaining ground Since February, voices in Syriza urging a halt to compromise have got louder. Many of the party’s members and supporters have begun to question whether it is worth staying in the Euro if this makes more austerity inevitable. At a recent meeting of Syriza’s central committee, the Left Platform proposed an alternative programme calling for ‘Grexit’ and wholesale bank nationalisation. This managed 44% of the vote, a sharp increase on previous levels of support for the Left. Last Wednesday saw thousands protesting in central Athens, calling for the government to stand firm against the creditors . This, plus ongoing strikes and protests such as the recent action by pharmacists, shows the social movement is still on the streets. 4. Grexit could have huge consequences Many economists think that the economic fallout of a Grexit would be perfectly manageable , as European banks are now more financially secure and have much less Greek debt on their books than before. This is entirely possible – but it should be recalled that most economists did not predict the financial crisis in 2008. Furthermore, other seasoned voices believe the effects would be profound, including new economic crises, the potential unravelling of the whole European project and serious geopolitical implications. 5. This is an historic moment It is scarcely possible to overstate the potential importance of current developments. If Syriza forces the issue to Grexit and then embarks on a radical left programme that was is to work, Greece could become a beacon for the radical left. Across Europe, activists could be inspired to set up Syrizas of their own, and could gain dramatic votes if people saw the Greece example as a success story to emulate. And the ripples could spread to other states in the south of the continent, particularly Spain and Portugal, very quickly. On the other hand, a Grexit that led to economic disaster either for Greece or Europe could lead to a new ‘discrediting’ of the left, with commentators on the right pointing to Greece as a perfect example of why the left’s ideas can never work. And a Syriza surrender to the creditors could open up all sorts of new possibilities, for struggle or defeat, inside Greece and internationally. The stakes are massive, and solidarity with Greece is vital at this point. The next stage in that process in the UK is [Tuesday/Today], when activists will gather in Trafalgar Square as part of a Europe-wide show of solidarity . I hope to see you there. Take it or leave it Syriza’s options are rapidly running out, says Eddie Ford. Whether inside or outside the euro, austerity will not go away Weekly Worker, CPGB-PCC, June 18 <http://weeklyworker.co.uk/worker/1063/take-it-or-leave-it> . . . In fact, it does not appear that the Syriza leadership has a plan B - just hope beyond hope that its creditors blink at the very last minute, meaning Greece can remain within the euro. But the left of the party certainly does have one - especially the influential Left Platform, which on June 17 called for mass demonstrations against the “destructive agreement” that the institutions are trying to impose on the Greek people. The LP wants a complete “rupture” with the euro zone, with central committee member Stathis Kouvelakis demanding that the government should “counterattack” with a plan based on “pre-electoral pledges” and previous “programmatic announcements” - he said Tsipras should default on the debt as a matter of “priority”. While communists can sympathise with the militant sentiments put forward by LP, their strategy is hopeless - an isolated government on the margins of Europe would have absolutely no choice but to preside over its own austerity regime. Greece, at the end of the day, is a small and economically weak country that does not have much in terms of industrial production and, if placed under siege, would be unlikely to be able to feed itself. Yes, no doubt, a Syriza-led government carrying out an LP-type programme would try to strike deals with Moscow - it should be noted that Tsipras is meeting Vladimir Putin on June 18. Maybe Greece could become a Mediterranean version of Cuba - though it is a very risky adventure. But from the viewpoint of socialism an impoverished Greece is a total non-starter - it would serve as a giant advert for the folly of electing ‘loony left’ governments. Capitalism cannot be positively overcome by one state acting on its own: the pernicious doctrine of socialism in one country (national socialism). There are objective, material factors that simply cannot be ignored. For this very reason, we in the CPGB always strongly counselled against Syriza ‘taking the power’ - even though most on the left (at first) thought we were mad for saying so. If we find ourselves in a situation where there is no reasonable prospect of carrying out our full minimum programme - for the smashing of the old bureaucratic bourgeois state and its replacement by a semi-state that marks the beginning of the transition to human freedom - then we should remain a party of extreme opposition. In our opinion, what Syriza should have done was resist the temptation of government and concentrated instead on building up its own forces, to the point where it had become genuinely hegemonic within Greece - having a clear majority committed to a transition to socialism. Most importantly of all, the Greek left needs to be a key force for principled unity of the working class across Europe - which obviously requires a Communist Party of the European Union if it is going to be meaningful. Greece is a sideshow. The eurozone has failed, and Germans are its victims too by Aditya Chakrabortty The Guardian, June 22 <http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/22/greece-eurozone-germans-single-currency> Will Europe’s Leaders Push Greece to the Breaking Point? The crisis isn’t quite as dire as the media often portray it, but still—this is a dangerous moment for Greek democracy and for Europe. Maria Margaronis The Nation magazine (U.S.), June 21 <http://www.thenation.com/article/210457/will-europes-leaders-push-greece-breaking-point> Painful reality — creditors will support Greece in any case by Shawn Donnan in Washington and Peter Spiegel in Brussels Financial Times, June 22 <http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c797cd48-18f4-11e5-8201-cbdb03d71480.html#axzz3dptbE9NJ Whatever emerges from high-wire negotiations aimed at averting a Greek default and possible exit from the eurozone, the country’s creditors have begun to acknowledge an expensive truth: that Greece is likely to be reliant on the support of the EU and International Monetary Fund for years to come because of the depth of its economic problems. The Greek government is determined to wrap up what it sees as an onerous relationship with the IMF and its other bailout monitors by March next year, when its current IMF programme expires. But at the IMF senior officials regard that as an overly optimistic scenario. Even in the best case — and with a deal done this week to avoid default — they doubt Athens would be able to return to markets to meet its financing needs within nine months. In the words of one senior official close to the negotiations, many people at the IMF “would rather cut off their little finger” than extend what has been a fractious and controversial relationship with Greece. But it is “unrealistic” to believe that Greece’s economic woes will be solved less than a year from now. The inescapable reality is that for Greece to get back on its feet it is likely to need the IMF’s help far beyond the current four-year, $30bn bailout. And the same truth, they contend, applies to its European creditors. Even in the event of a Greek default, the country’s creditors would not be off the hook. If Athens misses a €1.5bn payment due to the IMF on June 30 — making it the first developed nation to miss such a payment — it would immediately lose access to the Fund’s financial resources. It would likely then turn to fellow EU members for support, an eventuality that European institutions have already begun preparing for amid warnings about the social upheaval and human suffering that might ensue. The European Commission has begun doing the groundwork for a multibillion euro “balance of payments” assistance programme, according to people briefed on the preparations. Such a facility would allow Athens to request loans backed by the EU budget, which is funded by its 28 member states, to help navigate its way through any payments crunch. In that case, EU members such as the UK, which have studiously avoided any involvement with Greek rescues, would suddenly find themselves exposed. Ironically, those plans would also likely involve a return role for the IMF, say people briefed on the discussions, and conditions for economic reforms very similar to those that Athens is now resisting so forcefully. The EU’s balance of payments support scheme has been tapped in the recent past to give billions of euros in financial assistance to Hungary, Latvia and Romania to help them through economic crises. In all three cases the funds were released alongside the IMF. Under the programmes for Hungary and Romania, for example, 60 per cent of the loan package came from the IMF, and the remainder from EU assistance. (For that to happen, Greece would have to first settle any outstanding debts to the IMF). While officials concede it is almost impossible to predict the potential political climate following a Grexit, there is an expectation that the EU would still be willing to show some solidarity with the Greek people in a time of urgent need. Some in Berlin believe creditors should be focusing less on keeping Greece in the eurozone and more on preparing for an orderly exit, with promises of humanitarian aid. For the IMF, the deliberations are driven less by solidarity and more by the fact that Greece now owes the fund almost €35bn ($39bn), making Athens its biggest debtor. Moreover, any failure of what is already a controversial bailout would carry huge reputational repercussions for the IMF. Greece could, even after a disorderly default, survive on its own resources for a time by running a balanced budget. But Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF, says that would not be sustainable for very long. Even small countries that go into arrears to the IMF try to resolve those debts as soon as possible — with good reason. “The IMF is there to help when countries are down and there isn’t really an alternative,” he says. “You can do without the IMF if you are running a surplus. But you can’t do without it for very long.” On Mon, Jun 22, 2015 at 2:30 AM, Dayne Goodwin <daynegood...@gmail.com> wrote: [Marxism] some perspectives on Greek financial crisis (6) <http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/pipermail/marxism/2015-June/262683.html> . . . _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
