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Gary (and others) may be interested in the following methodological
reflection.  In order to understand the Syriza crisis, it is helpful to
think in terms of causally efficacious absences.  This posting
enumerates several concrete cases where it is more instructive to think
in terms of what did *not* happen, than in terms of what actually
happened.  This is a kind of dialectical thinking.

One absence: why did the institutions not give any concessions to the
Syriza negotiators?  Because they wanted to force Syriza to act against
their mandate, so that the disappointed Greek voters would vote them out
of office again.

I think Tsipras saw this and his reaction was apt.  Through his actions
he said: if you want the masses to lose trust in us, then let us ask
them directly whether they still support us.  He called the referendum
combined with an offer to let others continue the negotiations.

This caused the other side to panic and deliver another instructive
absence.  When Tsipras announced the referendum, the negotiation
partners did not say: "we understand, we all derive our power from the
popular mandate, and we gladly give you the ten days of time necessary
to hold a referendum."  Instead they took offense. They withdrew their
offer and broke off the negotiations, and caused a closure of the banks
in the week leading up to the referendum.  This cracked the democratic
veneer of the Institutions and revealed that there are two different
conceptions of democracy: carrying out the mandate of the voters on the
one hand, versus mining the consent of the voters in order to impose
disaster capitalism on the other.  It also cracked the unity of the
Institutions: the World Bank released a report supporting the position
of Syriza that the debt burden was unsustainable.

After the landslide win of the oxi vote, the ECB and Schauble repeated
their dismal performance.  Instead of finally offering small
concessions, they tightened their negotiation position even more.  This
is not only immoral and undemocratic but also irrational, and here one
has to wonder if they were still in control of the situation (another
absence) or whether their hand was now forced by their own earlier
propaganda: that Merkel would not get parliamentary majority if they
offered concessions.  Tsipras's conciliatory offer shows that he is the
only adult in the room.  He tries not to be the trigger forcing Germany
to irreversibly damage the European project.  He tries to act as a force
for the better, similar to what the Soviet Union often did in the past.
Greece may be forced out of the Euro nevertheless, but I think this
effort should be counted to Tsipras's credit.  We can no longer consider
politicians to be representatives of their own country only, especially
inside the EU.  He acted as a EU citizen as much as a Greek citizen.
(Obviously I do not think the EU should be smashed.  The EU is the world
leader in sustainability and de-carbonization, it is needed for a
livable planet in the second half of this century.)

Here is another fundamental absence, a big question mark ever since
Syriza came to power: why did a leftist coalition, after coming to
power, engage in diplomacy instead of building a socialist
infrastructure on the ground?  I think this absence is simply a matter
of time.  They are doing as much as they can to build a socialist
infrastructure on the ground, win the masses over to self-determination
and co-operative production, etc, but this cannot be achieved in a few
weeks or months, and until now they did not have the resources to
do it at the necessary scale.  They have the resources now.  If they
stay in power without splintering and see it as one of their priorities,
they can be the catalyst for profound developments in Greek society, so
that an eco-socialist Grexit, or even a stronger eco-socialist current
in the EU itself, becomes a possibility later.  This is why I find it so
important that Syriza stays in power and continues to get the support of
the international left.

If they do not build this infrastructure on the ground, their failure to
do it is generating another efficacious absence: others either in Greece
or elsewhere will draw the lessons and do what Syriza did not do.  Yes
we are learning, the only question is: are we learning fast enough?

Hans G Ehrbar.

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