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(Declining oil prices might get the Nobel Peace Prize.)
NY Times, Mar. 14 2016
Putin Orders Start of Syria Withdrawal, Saying Goals Are Achieved
By ANDREW HIGGINS
MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday ordered the
withdrawal of the “main part” of Russian forces in Syria, a surprise
move that he said was justified by the “overall completion” of Moscow’s
military mission in the war-ravaged country.
Mr. Putin’s order, reported by the state news media, came as the war in
Syria was about to enter its sixth year and a United Nations mediator in
Geneva was trying to revive peace talks to stop the conflict, which has
displaced millions and created a humanitarian catastrophe.
Russia has operated a naval base on the Syrian coast since the Soviet
period, but Mr. Putin’s order seemed to relate to warplanes operating
from a new air base in Latakia that since September have carried out
intensive bombings against rebels fighting to topple President Bashar
al-Assad of Syria.
Mr. Putin said the withdrawal would not mean the closing of the Latakia
base, and he gave no indication when the withdrawal would be concluded.
Since Russian warplanes began their campaign on Sept. 30, Mr. Assad has
gained ground against rebel forces and headed off the risk that his
regime, Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East, might collapse.
“I believe, that the tasks put before the defense ministry have been
completed over all,” Mr. Putin told Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu
and Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov at a meeting in the Kremlin on
Monday evening. “Because of this, I have ordered that from tomorrow the
main part of our military groups will begin their withdrawal from the
Syrian Arab Republic.”
The Kremlin said Mr. Putin had telephoned the Syrian president to inform
him of the Russian withdrawal, but gave no details of Mr. Assad’s
reaction to the move, saying only that he had expressed thanks for
Russia’s help and had praised the “professionalism and heroism” of
Russian servicemen.
“The leaders noted that the actions of the Russian air forces have
allowed a significant turn in the fight against terrorists,” a statement
on the Kremlin website said.
In tandem with the military withdrawal, Mr. Putin called on Russian
diplomats to strengthen their efforts in reaching a negotiated settlement.
“I am asking the Foreign Ministry to intensify the participation of the
Russian Federation in the organization of the peace process on the
settlement of the Syrian problem,” he said at the meeting.
Although the timing of Mr. Putin’s announcement was a surprise, some
analysts had been expecting it, suggesting that Russia had accomplished
what it wanted in Syria and that prolonging the deployment might lead to
unanticipated problems.
The partial cease-fire in Syria, which began Feb. 27, has proved more
effective and durable than expected, significantly reducing the level of
violence.
At the same time, Mr. Assad and his aides have shown increased
unwillingness to negotiate a political settlement, which may have irked
his Russian allies.
“Over the past few weeks, the Assad regime has made a number of
statements indicating their negotiating position with the opposition
remains quite rigid,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a scholar of Arab politics
at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Putin’s announcement,
coming on the same day U.N. peace talks started in Geneva and in the
absence of a decisive victory by Assad’s forces, indicates that Moscow
might not be with Assad till the bitter end,” Mr. Tabler said.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria, which involved the deployment
of 45 strategic and tactical bombers as well as fighter planes,
helicopters and antiaircraft systems, was Moscow’s first such action
outside the former Soviet Union since the collapse of communism in 1991.
The state-controlled news media in Russia trumpeted the intervention as
a sign that Moscow had regained its role as a global military power.
Television news broadcasters, after weeks of hailing the operation
daily, seemed stunned Monday evening when news of the withdrawal first
broke.
Russian warplanes gave a major boost to Mr. Assad’s fading military
fortunes, flying more than 9,000 sorties and helping the Syrian
government regain control of 400 settlements, according to Mr. Shoigu,
the Russian defense minister.
The decision to withdraw, announced as abruptly as Russia’s initial
decision to intervene, could allow Mr. Putin to avoid the risk that what
has been a relatively painless and, in both military and public
relations terms, highly successful mission for Russia could turn into a
quagmire costly in lives, money and political capital for the Kremlin.
Mr. Putin’s announcement appeared to catch the United States and other
Western countries by surprise.
Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said he had not seen
reports of Russia’s possible withdrawal from Syria, but the Obama
administration has frequently expressed frustration with Russia’s
continued military support for Mr. Assad, whom the Americans have long
insisted should step down.
“Obviously, we have talked about how Russia’s continued military
intervention to prop up the Assad regime made the efforts to make a
political transition increasingly more difficult,” Mr. Earnest said.
Mr. Putin’s announcement came as the United Nations mediator, Staffan de
Mistura, resumed his efforts to broker a peace deal, acknowledging the
gulf still dividing the warring parties and putting the onus squarely on
Russia, the United States and other powers to apply whatever pressure
was needed to bring them together.
Speaking earlier to reporters, Mr. de Mistura remarked that “the real
peacemakers here are the peacemaking powers who wanted these talks,”
adding, almost as an afterthought, “and hopefully the Syrian sides.”
If he saw no willingness to negotiate, he said, “we will bring the issue
back to those who have influence.”
Reporting was contributed by Neil MacFarquhar from Moscow, Nick
Cumming-Bruce from Geneva, Gardiner Harris from Washington and Rick
Gladstone from New York.
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