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Sent from my iPhone Begin forwarded message: > From: "Steve Ellner" <[email protected]> > Date: April 18, 2017 at 2:56:11 PM PDT > To: "Jesus Rodriguez Espinoza" <[email protected]>, Jesús > Rodríguez-Espinoza <[email protected]>, "Joelle Fishman" > <[email protected]>, "John Hammond" <[email protected]>, "John > Minns" <[email protected]>, "Jose Gregorio Tovar" <[email protected]>, > "Joshua Frank" <[email protected]>, "Joshua Frens-String" > <[email protected]>, "Juan Grigera" <[email protected]>, "julia Buxton" > <[email protected]>, "julia Buxton" <[email protected]>, > "Julio Escalona" <[email protected]>, "June Erlick" > <[email protected]>, "Justin Delacour" <[email protected]>, > "Keane Bhatt" <[email protected]>, "Kevin Young" > <[email protected]>, "Kim Scipes" <[email protected]>, "Lee Sustar" > <[email protected]>, "Leo Panitch" <[email protected]>, "leonardo > bracamonte" <[email protected]>, "Lucas Alvarez" > <[email protected]>, "Lucas Koerner" <[email protected]>, "Luis > Alberto Andarcia" <[email protected]>, "Luis Angosto Ferrandez" > <[email protected]>, "Luis Ricardo Davila" > <[email protected]>, "Magda Andarcia" <[email protected]>, > "Manuel Anselmi" <[email protected]>, "Marc Becker" > <[email protected]>, "Marc Becker" <[email protected]>, "Maria Riera" > <[email protected]>, "Mariano Feliz" <[email protected]>, "Mario > Ayala" <[email protected]>, "Mark Weisbrot" <[email protected]>, > "Maxwell Cameron" <[email protected]>, "Meredith Dodge" > <[email protected]>, "Michael Albert" <[email protected]>, "Michael Lebowitz" > <[email protected]>, "Michael Lebowitz" <[email protected]>, "Nancy Postero" > <[email protected]>, "Naomi Schiller" <[email protected]>, "Pablo > Morales" <[email protected]>, "Pablo Navarrete" <[email protected]>, > "Pablo Pozzi" <[email protected]>, "Pascal Lupien" > <[email protected]>, "Patrick Clark" <[email protected]>, "Peter > Ranis" <[email protected]>, "Peter Roman" <[email protected]>, "Peter > Winn" <[email protected]>, "Ralph Newmark" <[email protected]>, "Renaud > Lambert" <[email protected]>, "Richard Hillman" > <[email protected]>, "Robert Austin" <[email protected]>, > "Rosalind Bresnahan" <[email protected]>, "Sara Motta" > <[email protected]>, "Stephany Tovar" > <[email protected]>, "Sujatha Fernandes" <[email protected]>, > "Susan Spronk" <[email protected]>, "T.M. Scruggs" > <[email protected]>, "Teresa Meade" <[email protected]>, "Tom Chodor" > <[email protected]>, "Victor Hugo" <[email protected]>, "Victor Wallis" > <[email protected]>, "Walter Lippmann" <[email protected]>, "William > Robinson" <[email protected]>, "Zuleika Arashiro" > <[email protected]> > Subject: Some thoughts on tomorrow's protests > > > WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THE VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION PROTESTS REACH DOWNTOWN > CARACAS? >> >> All the opposition marches in April called by Henrique Capriles and other >> Venezuelan leaders of the MUD have sought to reach downtown Caracas. The >> ostensible goal is to present a petition to the Defensoria del Pueblo. In a >> normal situation, such a mobilization would certainly be legitimate. But >> opposition leaders fully realize that the government will not allow for the >> protesters to march from the wealthy eastern part of Caracas to the downtown >> area. There are echoes of the April 11, 2002 march that led into the coup >> against President Chávez, when the opposition newspaper El Nacional >> published the large banner headline “The Final Battle in Miraflores,” >> encouraging people that day to march to the presidential palace. >> >> Let us assume that the Maduro government, acting in good faith, were to >> allow the opposition protesters to march to the center of Caracas. Such a >> scenario would go something like this: >> >> Scenario one: The Maduro government meets with opposition leaders and grants >> them permission to march to the center of Caracas. The opposition agrees to >> limit the march to 35,000 people and to end the protest in the late >> afternoon. >> >> Scenario two: Peaceful march to the center of Caracas. Everything goes >> according to plan. >> >> Scenario three: Opposition leaders such as Freddy Guervara (as he has said >> in the past) announces that the opposition will remain in the center of >> Caracas until their demands are met. The less extremist leaders such as >> Capriles now call on their followers to join the protest and people come in >> from the eastern part of Caracas, from the eastern part of Venezuela and >> from the west as far away as Táchira, Mérida and Maracaibo. There are now >> 750,000 protesters in the center of Caracas. >> >> Scenario four: At nighttime, the guarimba brigades, which during the 2014 >> protests were responsible for widespread destruction and violence and have >> acted in a similar way in recent days, go on a rampage and clash with >> national guardsmen and police. >> >> Scenario five: CNN and other international news outlets juxtapose the >> confrontation of the guarimba brigades with security forces, on the one >> hand, and the peaceful protesters, on the other, thus leaving the impression >> that the government is using random force against peaceful protesters (April >> 11, 2002 anyone?). >> >> Scenario six: At this point Maduro may see the handwriting on the wall in >> which case he resigns. If he doesn’t, we can all imagine scenarios seven, >> eight and nine. >> >> from my blog >> http://steveellnersblog.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-would-happen-if-venezuelan.html >> >> > > _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
