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There are two new mainstream papers out that offer some interesting analysis on the reasons behind the Long Depression that the major economies (or at least, the US) have suffered since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 – in the growth of real GDP, productivity, investment and employment.
First, there is a paper by economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve. The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009 by John Fernald, Robert E. Hall, James H. Stock, and Mark W. Watson. They consider the well-known evidence that US real GDP growth has expanded only slowly since the recession trough in 2009, counter to normal expectations of a rapid cyclical recovery. In the paper, they remove the “cyclical effects” of the Great Recession and find that there was already a sharply slowing trend in underlying growth before the global financial crash in 2008. The Fed economists conclude that the slowing trend reflected two factors: slow growth of innovation and declining labour force participation.
full: https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2018/02/14/the-underlying-reasons-for-the-long-depression/
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