******************** POSTING RULES & NOTES ********************
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*****************************************************************
On 2019/06/27 3:58 PM, Louis Proyect via Marxism wrote:
I'm working on an article about the ex-ISO right now and accessed this
article I wrote in 2004 for background.
http://www.columbia.edu/~lnp3/mydocs/american_left/CamejoShawki.htm
_________________________________________________________
On Camejo: "He pointed to the likelihood that the United States has
either reached the Hibbert curve or will soon do so. This means that the
rate of economic growth will be slowed by energy shortages. We are also
facing a situation in which home ownership has become a kind of savings
plan for most working people, as house values increase as a result of
cheap mortgage rates induced by low inflation rates. When rising energy
costs leads to an inflationary spike, home values will begin to sharply
decrease. The consequence might be massive consumer default and bankruptcy."
This is a line of argument I'm not too familiar with, but it's plausible
since the oil price hit $145/barrel in 2008 (before crashing to $35
within a few months). But I thought the general correlation of inflation
to real estate was opposite to what's posited below (i.e., inflationary
spikes allow real estate to hold value better than other commodity
forms). Also, my sense of 2007-08 mortgage defaults in the U.S. was much
more based upon the Exploding Adjustable Rate Mortgage phenomenon (a
low-interest baiting, then switching to high rates after a few years),
which especially hit African American neighborhoods, as well as those
who were engaged in real estate flips coming up to the top of the
Kuznets property cycle in particular locales in the U.S. Southwest,
Florida and a few vulnerable cities. But I stand to be corrected. Has
anyone revisited this?
_________________________________________________________
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at:
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
