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By Aron Lund.
While Putin has no love for the Turkish-backed Islamists in control of
much of Idlib and seems to be fine with Assad’s gruesome tactics, his
interests are in fact split, since Russia is deeply invested in its
relationship with Erdogan. As a major trade and energy partner with
enduring influence along Russia’s southern border, and a powerful but
politically awkward role in NATO, Turkey holds enormous strategic
importance to the Kremlin.
Over the past few years, Russia has had no qualms about poking Turkey to
test its reactions and demand concessions. But now that Ankara has
lashed out against Putin's Syrian ally, will Moscow respond in kind or
seek a compromise?
The answer may depend on how ambitious Erdogan’s agenda really is. If
Ankara is simply seeking to deter attacks on Turkish soldiers in Idlib,
Russia might offer some pro forma criticism in public but will probably
signal its understanding in private. However, Moscow might have a harder
time accepting if Turkey tries to obstruct Assad’s progress along the
vital M5.
full:
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28516/in-the-battle-for-idlib-in-syria-turkey-strikes-assad-s-forces-for-the-first-time
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