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Dear comrade,
thanks for thoughtful reply (as it is always even if I do not always
agree with your arguments).
Obviously my medical knowledge is minimal – in particular compared with
these scientists. I just can reproduce what they – respectively the
editors of the scientific journal which published this study – give as
the conclusion of their study:
“As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838
deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169
deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority
during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical
severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment
rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and
published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case
fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of
COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than
both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk
(2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/ deaths +
recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared
to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were
0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after
developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with
age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).“
You are of course right to point out that the Modi government is
terrorizing the Kashmir people with and without COVID-19. I just wanted
to point out that India, Algeria and Chile are actual and very obvious
examples where the regimes utilize COVID-19 in order to paralyze and
attack ongoing mass movements. Do people think that these are the only
governments in the world who have political considerations in utilizing
COVID-19?! Could it not be the case that the governments in the
imperialist states are doing the same? Not all of them are clowns and
idiots like Trump and Johnson. Some are pretty smart and capable
representatives of the “ideal total capitalist”! (like Xi, Macron and
Merkel)
Am 19.03.2020 um 20:14 schrieb hari kumar via Marxism:
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So sorry - 'point 3(i) should not read the word 'mythology' - but
'METHODOLOGY.."
i) This is modelling data. Yes this METHODOLOGY does have a role - but it
then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to
enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very
humble about it (see my point iii) below. "
I blame Apple's automatisms - not any latent bias on this particular point..
H
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:06 PM hari kumar <hari6.ku...@gmail.com> wrote:
re: Message: 11
Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:03:08 +0100
From: RKOB <ak...@rkob.net>
To: Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition
<marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu>
Subject: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was
much lower
Message-ID: <8d6064fc-2929-18c8-22ee-2a72d9a04...@rkob.net>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed
One of my comrades with medical background drew my attention to an
interesting new study from Chinese scientists. It says that the fatality
rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been 1.4%, i.e. substantially lower than
initially reported (4.5%)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
________________________________________________________
Dear Michael:
1) The overtly fascist Modi government has long attacked even any
semblance of opposition in Kashmir. It does not need the COVID 19 excuse;
and nor does the Kashmiri opposition, get fooled by pretences this has
anything to do with COVID-19. But you have written a lot on this matter -
which broadly I agree with - so you know this.
2) Algeria - like Chile - yes there may be national variations.
3) Your article linked to below is of marked interest. It is a letter -
which does go through a peer review process, but in my experience is
usually not quite as 'sharp'.
Nonetheless, thank you for alerting us to this.
There are a couple of things about this that, however, warrant a close
reading. It does not show what superficially may be thought to show: "
fatality rate was much lower in Wuhan".
i) This is modelling data. Yes this mythology does have a role - but it
then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to
enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very
humble about it (see my point iii) below.
ii) One thing they do not really come clean about is the following issue.
As I read it, this is
a paper that *only* uses data of people who flew out of Wuhan - and
were not part of the Wuhan susceptible pool for the final data-set. So if I
understand it right, it sets them up as a 'captive' population. Thus -
you would I assume - want this population to have the advantage of 100%
testing - to put that set of data into the modelling. But is this what
happened? Actually it is buried away, in 'supplementary Tables' - that it
is not what happened. it is not known what proportion of those passengers
flown out were indeed tested:
"See: *Supplementary Tables 1–9. ** Japan, Singapore, South Korea,
Germany, Belgium and Malaysia had tested all the passengers and a few
pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic cases were confirmed. For other countries,
it is unknown whether they had tested all the passengers or only those
showing symptoms. “ Supplementary Table 3. [See: Supplementary
Information *- https://static- <https://static->
content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822-
<http://content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822->
7/MediaObjects/41591_2020_822_MOESM1_ESM.pdf *
iii) To avid this becoming an overlong mail, I only then ask that the
final section of the letter be looked at carefully. They themselves
acknowledge many limitations, which is why I said they were humble about
this finding. They say this: "Several important caveats are worth
mentioning, as follows. First, and most importantly, our modeled estimates
have necessarily relied on numerous strong assumptions".
As I had said in my article, there is a lot we (collectively) and
more especially I (the narrow me) still do not know. We need to
be cautious. And once more I am not an ID specialist. I know a reasonable
amount of trail-based epidemiology, but the epidemiology involved in
ID gets more and more distinct.
In solidarity, Hari Kumar
PS: Louis: I am sorry if this again turns out to be too narrowly spaced. I
tried to obey your injunctions
to format better. If still poorly formatted, I will again try something
different.
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