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<<On Jul 12, 2010, at 12:01 AM, NĂ©stor Gorojovsky wrote: > > Can anyone calculate the probabilities that Paul the octopus has > reached his results by chance? 1/28 = . 0039 Statistically significant at the 99.6 % level. Sheldrake strikes again!>> Shane Mage >> Since there is a disagreement between the number above and my number below, I will demonstrate my reasoning. Say the winner is always heads (H): With 1 throw the possibilities are HT and TH or 1/2 probability = 2 to the first power 2 With 2 throws the possibilities are HH HT TH TT or 1/4 probability= 2 to the second power 4 With 3 throws the possibilities are HHH HTH HHT HTT probablity 1/8 = 2 to the third power 8 TTT THT TTH THH With 4 throws the possibilities are HHHH HHHT HHTT HTTT HTHH HTHT HTTH HHTH Probability 1/16= 2 to the 4th power 16 TTTT TTTH TTHH THHH THTT THTH THHT TTHT Etc...Leading to the conclusion that the possibility of 9 straight passes = 2 to 9th power = 512 with the chance of this happening 1/512 or 511 to 1. From the internet note this on 7 throws: <<With an "unbiased" coin your odds of a single toss are 1/2. With two tosses, it becomes 1/2*2. With 7 tosses, it is 1/2^7 (that 2 to the 7th power) = 1/128. Not impossible, but it's a very low percentage (less than 1% of the tries). Best regards, Omnivorous-GA>> http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview/id/526284.html 7 throws ends with 128 different combinations and 128 is 2 to the 7th power. Then there is this with 10 throws <<0 heads: 1/1024 = 0.0009765625 1 head: 10/1024 = 0.009765625 2 heads: 45/1024 = 0.0439453125 3 heads: 120/1024 = 0.1171875 4 heads: 210/1024 = 0.205078125 5 heads: 252/1024 = 0.24609375 6 heads: 210/1024 = 0.205078125 7 heads: 120/1024 = 0.1171875 8 heads: 45/1024 = 0.0439453125 9 heads: 10/1024 = 0.009765625 10 heads: 1/1024 = 0.0009765625>> http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56660.html The importance of this lies in the number "1024" which is 2 to the 10th power. And 1/512 (which is 2 to the 9th power) = .002% even more impressive than the comrade's assertion above On 11:59 AM, johnaimani wrote: > 2 to the 9th power or 511-1. > > Now 2 to the 9th is 512 but there is one chance that the octopus > selects correctly. > > ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com