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> Jay wrote: > > I've thought for a long time the U.S. and or Israel would attack Iran > and have been proven wrong so far. My comment: Well I am in the same boat. I have though been influenced lately by Castro's remarks though it may be that his analysis has a domestic dimension as well. I do not think however that wars happen accidentally. The recent shooting on the Lebanese border shows that. The Israelis could have used the excuse of the casualty to invade if they wanted. But it may be that as the Angry Arab has been arguing, Israel does not want another war on its Northern frontier. An attack though on Iran is something different. Hizbullah can empty the north of Israel with its rockets. I do not think Iran can inflict a similar level of interruption. There does seem to be a genuinely strong section of opinion in the States and in Israel itself that the Israel monopoly of nuclear arms must be maintained at all costs. It is here that I was unconvinced by Abedin's analysis. His I thought was the worst possible scenario approach. But of course I am not a military expert and do not and do not want access to the necessary information. I just have gut feeling that this would be another confrontation between the Pentagon and a Third World army. Though of course the medium to long term consequences would be disastrous in terms of the destruction on all sides. It is also possible that the worst aspects of a US-Iran war would be the end of cooperation between Iran and the US over Afghanistan if that has not already ceased and the weakening of the position of America's Shia allies in Iraq. Moreover in real terms what we have learned over the last 5 years or so is that any war in the Middle East increases the world wide opposition to US & Israel comradely Gary ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@lists.econ.utah.edu Set your options at: http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
