stratfor.com

Colombia’s Paramilitary Transforms into Guerrilla Force
                     2320 GMT, 000622

                                   Chances for peace in Colombia took
another blow June 20.
                                   Colombia’s infamous far-right
paramilitary group intensified its
                                   opposition to the peace process by
kidnapping the brother of a top
                                   governmental peace negotiator. The
kidnapping is purportedly
                                   designed to pressure the government
into giving the United Self
                                   Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) a
seat at the ongoing peace
                                   negotiations. In reality, the AUC is
attempting to gain admittance
                                   to the talks in order to sabotage
them.

                     So far, President Andres Pastrana has resisted the
AUC’s demands. Now, with the
                     safety of governmental officials threatened,
Pastrana will be forced to combat the
                     escalation of the paramilitary’s activities instead
of ignoring it.

                     The AUC is switching strategies in hopes of forcing
the government’s hand. This is the
                     first time the AUC has blatantly challenged the
government by kidnapping the brother
                     of a peace negotiator. Until now, the rightist
group, led by the outlaw Carlos Castaño,
                     only attacked rural villages and local politicians
purportedly connected to Colombian
                     rebels. The new tactic won’t likely work, however,
because inviting the AUC to
                     participate in the peace negotiations would
effectively end the talks.

                     The AUC intends to undermine the peace talks by
threatening the government,
                     specifically officials involved in the
negotiations. In April, the government accused the
                     paramilitaries of plotting to kill the High
Commissioner for Peace Victor G. Ricardo.
                     Although Castaño denied the allegations, Ricardo
later resigned.

                     Then, on June 21, Castaño admitted kidnapping
regional lawmaker Guillermo
                     Valencia, brother of Fabio Valencia, a top official
involved in peace negotiations with
                     the largest guerrilla group, the Revolutionary
Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). A
                     week before, the AUC roundly criticized Valencia
for being “too generous” in the
                     negotiations, reported Agence France Presse on June
20. A day after the kidnapping,
                     Interior Minister Humberto de la Calle Lombana said
the kidnapping posed a serious
                     threat to the peace process, reported BBC.

                     The AUC and its supporters adamantly oppose the
peace process. According to the
                     U.S. State Department, hawkish members within the
government and the military
                     support the paramilitaries. They have long fought
the rebels and see the talks as
                     surrender. Already the AUC has decried the
concession of a southeastern
                     Switzerland-sized swath of territory to the FARC.
The paramilitaries also contest the
                     government’s plan to create another demilitarized
zone in the north for the ELN.

                     Indeed, Pastrana’s administration persists in the
negotiations, despite the glacial
                     pace of the talks. Leaders from both the government
and the FARC met earlier this
                     week in Caracas with Venezuelan Foreign Minister
Jose Vincente Rangel. The
                     officials met to prepare for a fundraising mission
aimed at garnering international
                     support for the peace talks, reported Venezuela
Online News June 19.

                     In addition, the proposed $1.3 billion U.S. aid
package to Colombia that had been
                     stalled in the Senate finally received tentative
endorsement on June 22. Despite the
                     endorsement, the measure must still receive final
approval and be reconciled with a
                     conflicting plan approved by the U.S. House of
Representatives. In the meantime, the
                     AUC hopes to prevent further movement in the peace
process.

                     The AUC and its backers are now gearing up to
challenge Pastrana’s administration
                     on every inch of progress made in the negotiations.
The kidnapping of the
                     governmental official is just the first step.
Continued momentum will also bring
                     increased violence. The once United Self-Defense
Force has now become just another
                     guerrilla group. The difference lies in its base of
support. As long as elements of the
                     government continue to undermine each other, the
negotiations will continue to
                     flounder. The AUC is simply the hawks’ most violent
weapon.


     --- from list [EMAIL PROTECTED] ---

Reply via email to