Best regards, Andrew Stewart
Begin forwarded message: > From: H-Net Staff via H-REVIEW <[email protected]> > Date: February 25, 2021 at 8:54:47 AM EST > To: [email protected] > Cc: H-Net Staff <[email protected]> > Subject: H-Net Review [H-War]: Clemans on Wilkinson, 'Deadly Quarrels: Lewis > F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War' > Reply-To: [email protected] > > David Wilkinson. Deadly Quarrels: Lewis F. Richardson and the > Statistical Study of War. Berkeley University of California Press, > 2018. 216 pp. $39.95 (paper), ISBN 978-0-520-30381-2. > > Reviewed by Paul Clemans (Air University, Air Command and Staff > College) > Published on H-War (February, 2021) > Commissioned by Margaret Sankey > > David Wilkinson's _Deadly Quarrels_ (1980) represents a full-length > examination of an earlier work by Lewis Fry Richardson, titled > _Statistics of Deadly Quarrels_ (1960).[1] Richardson had conducted > and published an in-depth statistical study of factors that > potentially contribute to the causations of war and the conditions of > peace. Many subsequent scholars incorporated his factor analysis into > their studies. However, Wilkinson believed the more creative parts of > the work had been neglected, such as Richardson's coding, counting, > and distribution models. Wilkinson's desire to see the political > science field more fully embrace these aspects of the work provided > the impetus behind his _Deadly Quarrels_. In short, _Deadly Quarrels_ > offers an assessment of what Richardson's _Statistics of Deadly > Quarrels_ was intended to do, what it did, what others have done with > it, and what is potentially left to be examined. > > _Deadly Quarrels_ affords a broad perspective of the significant > scholarly works on the causations of war and conditions of peace up > to 1980. The field was relatively young up to that point in time. In > fact, Wilkinson credits Richardson and Quincy Wright, author of _A > Study of War_ (1965), as the two pioneers responsible for initiating > studies into the causes of war a mere twenty years earlier. Wilkinson > also incorporates at least a dozen significant scholars who leveraged > Richardson's data in their own studies up to that point, such as > Frank Denton, William Horvath, and George Modelski, among others. > Wilkinson generally provides a rich, even-handed treatment of these > scholars' alternative interpretations throughout the volume, usually > by way of comparison. Although, he takes issue with several aspects > of J. David Singer's and Melvin Small's works. Wilkinson registers > disagreement specifically with their decision to omit civil wars and > to not publish their coding and, more generally, their theoretical > imagination. His critiques call into question the two scholars' > judgment calls regarding the data and, perhaps, their more > conservative approach. It is worth noting that Singer and Small > offered one of three war list data sets at the time, the other two > coming from Richardson and Wright. > > Wilkinson starts the volume with some welcome insights into > Richardson's background and motive for publishing his original study. > Often a scholar's previous experience and disposition are absent from > the discussions, despite the many subjective choices made in studies > of this breadth and depth. That is not the case here; Wilkinson > includes a good brief description of Richardson's religious > background and strong statistical expertise in other fields, > especially in meteorology. The description helps scholars to gauge > whether Richardson's choices are being driven by the quality and > limitations of the data or personal persuasion. That determination > may help scholars decide what aspects of the datasets they deem > worthy of further examination or reinterpretation. For example, > Wilkinson characterizes Richardson's decision to not pursue religion > factors further as a "conservative" decision (p. 89). Given that the > data covers over three hundred wars, 780 belligerent pairs, and > dozens of factors over a 130-year period, scholars may feel similarly > about other factors based on the short biography in the beginning. > > The chapters form an intuitive reevaluation of Richardson's original > study. The first chapter briefly, and compactly, covers Richardson's > purpose and assumptions. Wilkinson clearly expounds on Richardson's > terms and explains his methodology in the second chapter. Although > analysts will appreciate the detail in this chapter, only a basic > grasp is necessary to understand the concepts discussed in later > chapters. The next eight chapters examine sets of factors with > associated discussions of Richardson's original analysis, Wilkinson's > assessments and interpretations, other scholars' interpretations, and > potential areas of future study. A discussion of Richardson's > strengths and weaknesses rounds out the chapters with an emphasis on > his degree of success in achieving his Jominian aims. The conclusion > contains little more than the chapters' factor assessment summaries. > The following nine appendices are half the size of the book and are > chock-full of data and further analysis. Richardson's full war list, > the factor coding definitions, the raw war coding data, and the 780 > belligerent pairing list may be found there. Discussions of the > Wright and Singer and Small war lists may be found there as well. > > At first, it appears _Deadly Quarrels_ only evaluates factors with an > admirable attention to an extended historiography, but Wilkinson does > develop an argument based on Richardson's factors. Halfway through > the volume, the argument begins to congeal with the "participation of > named nations" factor. Wilkinson reaches the finding that conditions > of peace are most likely reached with "a realist/conservative peace > strategy of pacifying, or to a utopian/radical strategy of > liquidating, the great powers" (p. 70). From here, the work moves > from examining the factors affecting the causes of war to seeking > means to impose conditions of peace. The volume subsequently turns > its focus toward schemes that might effectively achieve this > pacification. Theories of prosperity, religion, language, > modernization, and cultural similarities and their relationship to > war are considered in light of these schemes. While not discounting > any of the other factors, Wilkinson settles on prosperity and > homogenization as the two significant factors leading to pacification > and conditions of peace. > > The logic Wilkinson uses to arrive at this conclusion and this > strategy is satisfying with a few exceptions. Richardson assumed that > given a large sample size he could overcome mistakes in factor > categorization of any individual war. He did not consider that he may > make the same categorization mistake across all wars, leading to > systemic errors. Whether or not this occurred, and those errors > exist, is left to the discretion of the reader. A second concern > emerged from the occasional tendency to use numbers as opposed to > percentages over time. For example, when considering the increasing > or decreasing "warlikeness" of nations, Wilkinson compares five > million deaths from 1820 to 1884 to forty-two million deaths from > 1885 to 1949, that is, the deaths for two separate sixty-four-year > periods (p. 26). However, the population was not the same and not > constant for either of these periods. The use of percentages may be > more appropriate here, but even percentages may be inadequate given > the variations in population growth rates over such a duration. > Finally, and curiously, Richardson and Wilkinson excluded the > contribution of private manufacturers and arms traders from the list > of potential economic causes. While reconsideration of these factors > may not change the main finding or the subsequent factor analysis, > they should have been given greater examination. That said, any such > shortcomings would further the purpose of Wilkinson's volume--to spur > further research and assimilation in the field! > > The value of _Deadly Quarrels_ today lies in the logic leading to > Wilkinson's strategy for maintaining the conditions for peace. > Wilkinson evaluated dozens of factors using quantitative data to > identify the participation of the nations in war as the pivotal > factor. The reasoning and choices he made to arrive at this > determination is worth considering, even today. Also of value may be > the consideration of his reasoning to discard other factors and > alternative conclusions of other scholars. Wilkinson presented his > work as an early effort to scientifically derive a promising > direction for peace from qualitative data, but after forty years it > remains valid. His ideas of pacification, prosperity, and > homogenization can be seen and are valued in the world today. > > Wilkinson wrote this volume for the political science community, > specifically peace studies scholars. While the work itself has been > overtaken by further developments in the field, the slim volume would > be a good introduction into the subject's multifaceted > considerations. It should be noted that the volume altogether is over > two hundred pages, but the appendices provide all of Richardson's raw > data beginning on page 122. The raw data offers a ready-made project > for students to analyze for themselves. A wider audience would > receive edification from the work as well with a basic familiarity of > statistics. In either case, _Deadly Quarrels_ most likely will be > used as a survey from which to delve deeper into particular factors > of study or relationships. > > Note > > [1]. The book under review is part of the University of California > Press's Voices Revived series, and is a re-issue of the 1980 work. > > Citation: Paul Clemans. Review of Wilkinson, David, _Deadly Quarrels: > Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War_. H-War, H-Net > Reviews. February, 2021. > URL: https://www.h-net.org/reviews/showrev.php?id=55375 > > This work is licensed under a Creative Commons > Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States > License. > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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