FT.com, July5 2021
China watches Afghanistan anxiously as the US withdraws
Beijing is ready to co-operate with Taliban to prevent chaos across its
border, diplomats say
Stephanie Findlay in New Delhi, Christian Shepherd in Beijing and James
Kynge in Hong Kong
It is not without reason that Afghanistan is known as the “graveyard of
empires”. The ancient Greeks, the Mongols, the Mughals, the British, the
Soviet Union and most recently the US have all launched vainglorious
invasions that saw their ambitions and the blood of their soldiers drain
into the sand.
But after each imperial retreat, a new tournament of shadows begins.
With the US pulling out of Afghanistan, China is casting an anxious gaze
towards its western frontier and pursuing talks with an ascendant
Taliban, the Islamist movement that was removed from power in 2001.
The burning questions are not only whether the Taliban can fill the
power vacuum created by the US withdrawal but also whether China —
despite its longstanding policy of “non-interference” — may become the
next superpower to try to write a chapter in Afghanistan’s history.
Talks with the Taliban and an eye on Xinjiang
Beijing has held talks with the Taliban and although details of the
discussions have been kept secret, government officials, diplomats and
analysts from Afghanistan, India, China and the US said that crucial
aspects of a broad strategy were taking shape.
An Indian government official said China’s approach was to try to
rebuild Afghanistan’s shattered infrastructure in co-operation with the
Taliban by channelling funds through Pakistan, one of Beijing’s firmest
allies in the region.
“We can vouch that China will fund the rebuilding of Afghanistan through
the Taliban via Pakistan,” the official said. “China is Pakistan’s wallet.”
Another diplomat in the region said: “China at the request of Pakistan
will support the Taliban.”
An Afghan soldier at Bagram Air Base after the US departed the vast
facility that was its main command centre © Hedayatullah
Amid/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
The person added that Beijing was insisting that the Taliban limit its
ties with groups that it said were made up of Uyghur terrorists in
return for such support.
The groups, which Beijing refers to as the East Turkestan Islamic
Movement, are an essential part of China’s security calculus in the
region. The ETIM groups were estimated by the UN Security Council last
year to number up to 3,500 fighters, some of whom were based in a part
of Afghanistan that borders China.
Both the UN and the US designated the ETIM as terrorists in 2002 but
Washington dropped its classification last year. China has accused the
ETIM of carrying out multiple acts of terrorism in Xinjiang, its
north-western frontier region, where Beijing has kept an estimated 1m
Uyghur and other minority peoples in internment camps.
In a clear indication of Beijing’s determination to counter the ETIM,
Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, exhorted counterparts from the
central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
and Turkmenistan this year to co-operate to smash the group.
“We should resolutely crack down on the ‘three evil forces’ [of
extremism, terrorism and separatism] including the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement,” Wang said in May.
Securing the Belt and Road Initiative
The importance of this task, Wang added, derived in part from the need
to protect “large-scale activities and projects” to create a “safe Silk
Road”. Silk Road is one of the terms that Chinese officials use to refer
to the Belt and Road Initiative, the signature foreign policy strategy
of President Xi Jinping to build infrastructure and win influence overseas.
An important part of China’s motivation in seeking stability in
Afghanistan is protecting existing BRI projects in Pakistan and the
central Asian states while potentially opening Afghanistan to future
investments, analysts said.
Qian Feng, director of research at the National Strategy Institute at
Tsinghua University in Beijing, said China and Afghanistan had both
shown strong political will towards expanding co-operation under the
BRI. If stability was achieved in Afghanistan, it would “undoubtedly
bring great convenience to the flow of cargo between China and Eurasia”,
Qian said.
Fan Hongda, professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of the
Shanghai International Studies University, said China would more
actively support efforts to ensure political stability in Afghanistan.
“Even though China has for a long time been extremely cautious about
sending military forces overseas, if it is supported by a United Nations
resolution, China might join an international peacekeeping team to enter
Afghanistan,” he said.
“With continued turbulence, Afghanistan could easily become a hotbed for
growing Islamic extremism, which would to some extent affect stability
in Xinjiang.”
Yet any such ambitions may come unstuck if Afghanistan lapses back into
widespread violence following the withdrawal of US and Nato forces. The
outlook for Kabul’s ability to maintain stability was bleak, according
to diplomats in the region.
The Afghan government was able to maintain a measure of stability
largely because of the superiority of US air support. The drones,
gunships, helicopters and heavy air artillery were unmatched by the
Taliban.
But when the US leaves, that advantage will evaporate, notwithstanding a
reported US pledge last week to provide 37 Black Hawk helicopters to the
Afghan government.
“In 34 provinces, the Afghan military only has the means to fight in 40
per cent of the area without the US air support,” one diplomat said.
Sean Roberts, an associate professor at George Washington University and
author of The War on the Uyghurs, said China’s imperative to create
overland trade routes to Europe and the Middle East may draw it
inevitably into Afghanistan’s domestic strife.
“Afghanistan is a perfect example of how it will become increasingly
difficult for China to avoid getting entangled in local political and
security issues in regions where it has substantial economic interests,”
Roberts said.
Additional reporting by Emma Zhou in Beijing
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