What’s Happening in Gaza Is Not a War. It’s a Massacre.
by James A. Siebens, Benjamin S. Case, Inkstick, March 5, 2024
https://inkstickmedia.com/whats-happening-in-gaza-is-not-a-war-its-a-massacre
  .  .  .
As scholars of conflict and political violence, it is our job to seek clear
and consistent ways to understand concepts like war, terrorism, and
coercion with sufficient empiricism to avoid being confused or disoriented
by the passions of the moment. To that end, we will discuss three objective
elements of the violence in Israel and Gaza in service of appropriately
defining the conflict: the types of political actors involved in the
fighting, the numbers of fatalities, and the dynamics between combatants
and civilians.

Based on these three elements, it is difficult to characterize the Israeli
military campaign as war. In fact, applying objective criteria used by the
Correlates of War project (COW), a widely used resource on historical armed
conflicts, it’s debatable whether any of the violence between Israel and
Palestinian groups in the past two decades could be classified as war.
Technically speaking, the more appropriate classification is colonial
massacre.
  .  .  .
*When War Isn’t War*

The point of this type of clinical analysis is to be able to help discuss
complex and emotionally-wrenching violence across contexts with
consistency. There are few conflicts in the world that are more
historically, culturally, and politically fraught than Israel and
Palestine. And with much confusion and misinformation in the air, many of
the numbers, including those we use, are not fully verifiable. However, in
the ongoing violence in Gaza, there are certain things that are empirically
clear.

One side is a sovereign state while the other is a kind of dependency, a
formerly occupied and currently encircled non-state territory under the
control of a state to which it does not belong. One side is militarily
incapable of effectively resisting the other, and both combatant and
civilian fatalities are vastly disproportionate.

The ICJ will spend the next several years determining whether Israel is
guilty of genocide. In the meantime, whatever our personal attachments and
opinions on the conflict, we should strive for intellectual honesty and
precision in the terms we use to discuss the horrific violence in Israel
and Gaza. As the fighting drags on and Palestinian casualties continue to
mount, it is increasingly clear that social scientists and historians will
not regard what’s happening in Gaza as a war, but as a massacre.
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