OK, so I agree that neither Iran nor the U.S. wants a full scale war. And, a war can't be really fought with just airborne weapons and fighter planes. For that matter, I don't actually believe Israel wants such a war either as it can't wage one, at least not effectively. We don't actually talk about what a "war" with Iran would look like. But first the retaliatory attacks by Iran on Israel...
This was something politically Iran had to do. To maintain the varying degrees of influence on those forces that support it, primarily the following and in geographic order: the Iranian people to the degree they will defend the nation if not the government; pro-Iranian Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon (and partially organized in Syria as well), Hamas (not a Shia militia at all but one that is allied with Iran because forces get support from anyone willing to provide arms) and the Houthies in Yemen. This is quite an arch of influence politically and geographically. IMHO, domestic sentiment was probably half the reason Iran retaliated against Israel. It was not important that most of the missiles were shot down. Launching drones from a 1,000 miles away just makes for target practice. Do so from, say, southern Lebanon, which Iran chose NOT TO DO, is altogether different [such drones would be a lot smaller, harder to detect, can do more damage, etc etc and actually represent a qualitatively worse threat to the IDF than *anything* launched from Iran. I conclude that the Iranian action was symbolic even if some military bases were hit. The cost of the attack probably is close to $300 million for Iran and a similar amount of money for Israel, maybe more. Probably more. David's Sling is the IDF integrated air defense system that includes defensive weapons, mostly missiles. You can look them up under "Arrow 2" "Arrow 3" "Iron Dome" and "Iron Beam". The missiles cost upward of a million dollars a pop or more if it is anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM). Another aspect of this is that both Iran and Israel (and NATO behind it) "benefited" from this attack because it allowed each side to test the results of these weapons systems, draw conclusions on both the hardware, software, enemy response, etc. it was, in someways, a "war game" for both sides using real, albeit limited weapons. On Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate. It is "suspected" that Israel used their new U.S. provided F-35s (fairly good stealth fighter bombers that easily evaded Russian provided anti-airscraft systems) and U.S. provided JDAM pin-point bombs. The Iranians claim was 6 F-35s and they all launched missiles at the consulate. I think that is nonsense as any missile launched has to big an error radius to be effective. In fact, IDF intelligence must of been really, really, good since they hit only the annex next to the Consulate and not the main build of the Iranian Consulate. One bomb, one hit. Will Israel retaliate? I don't think so, though I'm not will to bet on it. I think this "ends" the episode as the Iranian regime claims. David Walters -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#29903): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/29903 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/105515975/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/8674936/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
