The trend is clear enough, but "runaway global warming" usually means that the climate has passed a tipping point. Scientific opinion seems to differ as to where exactly that is.
On Wed, Jan 29, 2025 at 12:21 PM Barry Brooks via groups.io <durable= [email protected]> wrote: > > Please convince me that I am wrong, but runaway extreme global warming is > not in doubt. > > Barry > > https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/ > > Global Temperature Report for 2024 > Posted on January 10, 2025 by Robert Rohde > > Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, has > been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes > since 2013. The following is our report on global mean temperature during > 2024. > > We conclude that 2024 was the warmest year on Earth since 1850, exceeding > the previous record just set in 2023 by a clear and definitive margin. This > period, since 1850, is the time when sufficient direct measurements from > thermometers exist to create a purely instrumental estimate of changes in > global mean temperature. > > The last ten years have included all ten of the warmest years observed in > the instrumental record. > > The warming spike observed in 2023 and 2024 has been extreme and > represents a larger than expected deviation from the previous warming > trend. The spike has multiple causes, including both natural variability > and man-made global warming from the accumulation of greenhouses gases; > however, as discussed below, we believe additional factors are needed to > explain the full magnitude of this event. Reductions in low cloud cover and > man-made sulfur aerosol pollution are likely to have played a significant > additional role in recent warming. > > Over the previous 50 years, global warming has preceded in an almost > linear fashion, consistent with an almost linear increase in the total > greenhouse gas forcing. The warming spike in 2023/2024 suggests that the > past warming rate is no longer a reliable predictor of the future, and > additional factors have created conditions for faster warming, at least in > the short-term. > > The global annual average for 2024 in our dataset is estimated as 1.62 ± > 0.06 °C (2.91 ± 0.11 °F) above the average during the period 1850 to 1900, > which is traditionally used a reference for the pre-industrial period. This > is first time Berkeley Earth has reported an annual average above 1.6 °C > (2.9 °F), and the only second time that Berkeley Earth has reported any > year exceeding the key 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) threshold, after slightly doing so > in 2023. Due to uncertainties and differences in methodologies, other > groups are expected to report 2024 as slightly cooler. The ECMWF’s > Copernicus research service joins us in just barely exceeding 1.6 °C (2.9 > °F), while other groups are somewhat cooler. The differences between > Berkeley Earth’s analysis and that of other groups is discussed at the end > of this report > > Note how the last years are rising a lot each year, out of the pack, > compared to the 50's, when the curves were close together. > https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world > > https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ > > > > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#34907): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/34907 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/110882881/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
