IMHO, the most important weapons the Venezuelans had available to defend themselves were not the S-300s but rather the 5,000 Russian Igla-S manpads that Maduro claimed to have. https://militarnyi.com/en/news/venezuela-deployed-russian-buk-m2e-air-defense-systems-amid-us-bomber-flights/#:~:text=At%20the%20same%20time%2C%20President,military%20forces%20in%20the%20Caribbean .
I watched a lot of coverage of the US attack from here in Bogotá, and the most amazing videos showed the US helicopters flying through the Venezuelan skies to kidnap Maduro without being fired at from the ground even though they were easy, slow, clearly visible, low flying targets. Although I think it is too early to read the tea leaves, my first takeaway from watching the news here is that the US helicopters and special forces acted with impunity. Not only have no attempts to shoot the helicopters down been reported, none of the members of Maduro's security team have been reported killed or wounded. (Xinhua says 40 Venezuelans were killed or injured including civilians and military personnel but does not say that any of Maduro’s personnel security team were among them.) Second, Trump demurred to support a move to place Maria Machado in power when directly asked. Third, the PSUV seems to be firmly in power without any public defections. Diosdada Cabello and many other Venezuelan officials have taken to the airwaves to denounce the attack as a crime while urging calm and unity. As far as I have seen, nobody in Venezuela has publicly ordered any sort of military mobilization. Colombia's President Petro castigated the criminal attack and ordered a military mobilization at the border, and Lula, Boric and Sheinbaum have issued strong statements of condemnation of the attack. However, Milei, Noboa and Kast have all supported the attack. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro is not a repetition of Bush's kidnapping of Noriega in 1989 despite eerie similarities. There are no US soldiers on the ground, and no invasion and occupation seem to be in the cards for now. Trump, Rubio and Hegseth seem to think they can split the PSUV and make some sort of deal with a sector. Some people here in Colombia are speculating that Maduro himself has made a deal and that all of this is just a charade. The only evidence they have is the trail of public pronouncements by Maduro that he wanted to talk to Trump and make a deal. Others are speculating that the Russians and/or the Chinese may have sold Maduro to Trump. At what price? Ukraine? (China expressed shock and condemned the attack, but although Russia’s statement said the action was “condemnable”, it concluded "In the current situation, it is important, first and foremost, to prevent further escalation and to focus on finding a way out of the situation through dialogue.") Whether Trump's attack looks successful or not will have big repercussions in the short term here in Latin America. What Trump et al. are clearly aiming for is a return to the bad old days of gunship diplomacy, imperialist rule by force, and the Monroe Doctrine’s declared aim of US dominance of the Western hemisphere. On Sat, Jan 3, 2026 at 12:52 PM David Walters via groups.io <[email protected]> wrote: > [Obviously, as a preface, Rubio is the brains behind this act, not Trump. > Trump is an idiot, full stop. He has to "OK" the plan, but it was Rubio and > experts at the Special Operations Command (SOC) that came up with this.] > > The "National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela" (here after ARV) as > they are officially known was akin, in my mind, to the Iraqi Army under > Saddam Hussein. With observers already on the ground in the country, the > SOC could pin point ARV concentrations and anti-aircraft brigades fairly > easily. There are around 110,000 full time troops in the ARV with another > 200,000 as part of the National Militia. Outside of these two official > armed forces is anyone guess. > > The AFV has about 40 Russian made Sukhoi Su-30MKV jet fighter/bombers. > They also had purchased 3 J > <https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=JYL-1_Radar&action=edit&redlink=1>JYL-1 > long range 3D surveillance radars from China. These are truck mounted not > like the US and Russia "AWACs" flying versions of them. The Russians also > sold Venezuela 40 Mi-17, 3 Mi-26 and 8 Mi-35 military attack/transport > helicopters. I suspect all this equipment are toast sitting on their > tarmacs...or not, especially if the US was able to subvert the ARV > leadership and they want them armed now that Maduro is gone. Additionally > the AFV purchased from Russia over 100,000 AK-103 assault rifles. > > As far as anti-aircraft systems are concerned, as I noted previously, > these weapons systems are only so good if the ARV knows where and when the > U.S. is going to attack. If these systems are turned OFF, as they usually > are, then they simply useless and highly expensive machines. If they are > turned on, US Navy anti-radar missiles will seek them out and overwhelm > them. The man-portable shoulder mounted anti-aircraft missiles-MANPADS > (think the Russian versions of a Stinger missile) are almost useless at > night which is when the attack took place making a all such weapons, > including anti-aircraft artillery useless. > > The AFV were, essentially, useless in preventing an invasion by a force > like the U.S. which has done this before from Granada through Iraq. The > Dept. of War accumulates knowledge on these sort of criminal regime change > efforts. > > So the big question now is "now what?". As you all have seen Trump > announced he and Rubio will be "personally running Venezuela". A huh. While > much/some of the important military infrastructure is destroyed (material > and personnel) much remains. The political and still loyal elements of > military structure, if it hasn't crumbled under this assault, can make life > miserable for the U.S. forces or their puppets (see Iraq/Afghanistan). We > have to wait and see. > > I'm hoping the Venezuelan people can continue to defend their sovereignty. > > David > > > > > -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#40012): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/40012 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/117059292/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
