Sirantos Fotopoulos -

Trump’s renewed flirtation with imperial bravado — from resurrecting the
fantasy of seizing Greenland, to Western hemispheric hegemony, to the
broader posture of military and economic coercion — is a stress test of the
political economy that underwrites American power, and it exposes how
fragile that system becomes when intimidation takes center stage. The
danger is not an abrupt geopolitical rupture or a dramatic market
implosion. The danger is subtler and far more corrosive: a growing global
consensus that the United States is no longer worth subsidizing,
economically or politically, and that the costs of its behavior should
finally be allowed to fall where they belong — at home.

For decades, American power has depended not just on military dominance,
but on a dense web of cooperation that quietly absorbed U.S. volatility.
Allies tolerated unpredictability, markets extended trust, and trading
partners structured supply chains around American demand. This was a
calculation that the United States, for all its flaws, was a stabilizing
anchor. Trump’s posture threatens to reverse that calculation. When threats
replace diplomacy and coercion replaces consent, foreign governments do not
need to respond with theatrical retaliation. They can simply stop smoothing
the path.

This is where the mythology of American invulnerability becomes dangerous.
The United States has long behaved as if global systems will continue to
bend around its political dysfunction no matter how aggressively it
behaves. But cooperation is not automatic; it is chosen. When that choice
is withdrawn — incrementally, legally, and without fanfare — the
consequences accumulate inside the U.S. economy in ways that are deeply
political. Not catastrophic, but grinding. Not spectacular, but relentless.

Trade friction is the most obvious channel. Regulatory delays, and
exclusion from preferential trade arrangements do not announce themselves
as punishment, yet they reliably translate into higher prices, disrupted
supply chains, and lost export markets. Last year's trade tariff wars
offered a preview. The stock market reacted with high volatility from a
sharp sell-off. Farmers were crushed by retaliatory measures. Manufacturers
and retailers were caught between rising input costs, wildly unpredictable
tariffs, and shrinking demand. And the federal government was forced into
bailout spending and agricultural sector subsidization simply to prevent
social and political blowback. Foreign governments learned from that
episode. They saw where pressure lands in the United States, and how
quickly affordability becomes a political crisis.

Beyond trade lies alliance reorientation — the quiet decision to buy
elsewhere, to source energy, infrastructure, and equipment from non-U.S.
firms, and to deepen regional arrangements that deliberately route around
Washington. These choices are rarely framed as retaliation. They are framed
as diversification, resilience, or strategic autonomy. Yet over time they
erode the high-value markets that sustain American wages and industrial
capacity. The United States does not lose influence in a single dramatic
break; it loses it because partners conclude that dependence on a volatile,
threatening hegemon is an unnecessary risk.

Regulatory pressure on U.S. corporations offers another lever. Aggressive
antitrust enforcement, data localization requirements, environmental
standards, and compliance regimes can all be justified under domestic law,
while disproportionately burdening American multinationals. These costs are
not absorbed quietly at the top. They are passed through to consumers as
higher prices, fewer services, and diminished access. What appears abroad
as routine governance registers at home as yet another squeeze on household
budgets.

Energy remains the most politically sensitive fault line. Even modest
shifts in supply preferences, shipping conditions, or contractual
flexibility can raise fuel and electricity costs, which then cascade
through transportation, food, and housing. Americans feel this immediately
and viscerally. The affordability crisis is lived daily. Foreign
governments do not need to coordinate explicitly to understand that higher
energy costs destabilize U.S. politics. The structure of American consumer
life makes that obvious.

None of this requires overt election interference. There is no need for
foreign states to endorse candidates, coordinate messaging, or comment on
U.S. domestic politics. The strategy, if it can be called one, is simply to
allow the costs of American unilateralism to become visible to American
voters. Inflation, tighter credit, rising rents, and more expensive
groceries do the political work on their own. Responsibility is diffuse,
but blame is not. It attaches to the president, always.

As the economic strain from eroding global cooperation and rising costs
intensifies, the U.S. labor market is showing signs of stagnation. Job
growth has slowed, wages remain stagnant when adjusted for inflation, and
industries dependent on exports and global supply chains are shedding
positions or delaying hiring. If this underperforming job market continues
throughout 2026, it could compound political and social pressures and the
midterms could reflect not only dissatisfaction with Trump’s policies but
widespread frustration with economic insecurity.

This dynamic matters profoundly as the 2026 midterms approach. Trump’s
political vulnerability is structural, not rhetorical. His base is
disproportionately working-class and acutely sensitive to price increases.
His record is already associated with tariffs, instability, and economic
brinkmanship. When affordability worsens, the mythology of strength
collapses into resentment. Voters do not parse global supply chains or
alliance politics; they experience immediate material pressure and draw
conclusions accordingly. A presidency that promised dominance but delivers
higher costs invites backlash from its own core supporters.

The deeper risk, however, extends beyond any single election. As the United
States substitutes coercion for cooperation, it accelerates a long-term
erosion of the privileges it has enjoyed for generations: preferential
access to markets, deference from allies, and the ability to externalize
economic disruption onto others. When those privileges are withdrawn, even
partially, Americans experience the adjustment as decline — not because the
country has suddenly collapsed, but because it must now pay full price for
its own behavior.

As the quiet subsidies that once stabilized American life come to an end,
cooperation erodes and costs once externalized abroad are pushed inward,
showing up as higher prices, tighter credit, and fewer buffers against
economic shock. What felt like normal baseline affordability was sustained
by deference and accommodation; without it, Americans are left to absorb
the direct consequences of Trump's conduct.

Trump’s adventurism abroad serves as a convenient distraction from the
affordability crisis and other contentious issues he would rather Americans
ignore — yet external forces exist that can recenter the focus back on
affordability. This is the true backfiring of Trump’s adventurism. Not a
sudden crisis, but a world that quietly decides the United States is no
longer worth accommodating — and an American electorate that feels the
consequences in their wallet well before they ever understand the
geopolitical logic behind it all.


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