*Exclusive: Rubio's secret squeeze on Raul Castro's Cuba*
Marc Caputo
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.axios.com/authors/mcaputo>,
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/marco-rubio-cuba-secret-talks
Secretary of State Marco Rubio
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.axios.com/2026/01/06/trump-rubio-threaten-venezuela-colombia-cuba>has
been holding secret talks with the grandson and caretaker of Cuba's
aging de facto dictator, Raul Castro
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.axios.com/2026/02/13/cuba-trump-raul-castro-indict>,
as the U.S. puts unprecedented pressure on Havana's regime, three
sources tell Axios.
*Why it matters:*The talks between Rubio and Raul Guillermo Rodriguez
Castro are bypassing official Cuban government channels. They show that
the Trump administration sees the 94-year-old revolutionary as the
communist island's true decision-maker.
* "I wouldn't call these 'negotiations' as much as 'discussions' about
the future," a senior Trump administration official said.
*Zoom in:*Rubio and his team see the 41-year-old grandson and his circle
as representing younger, business-minded Cubans for whom revolutionary
communism has failed — and who see value in rapprochement with the U.S.
* "Our position — the U.S. government's position — is the regime has
to go," the senior official said. "But what exactly that looks like
is up to [President Trump] and he has yet to decide. Rubio is still
in talks with the grandson."
* Called "Raulito," the younger Castro is known in political circles
by his nickname "El Cangrejo" ("The Crab") because he has a deformed
finger.
*Zoom out:*After 67 years of U.S. sanctions and Cuban mismanagement, the
totalitarian government appears closer than ever to collapse as the
island teeters on the edge of a humanitarian crisis.
* The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Food
and fuel are increasingly scarce. Tourism is drying up. Uncollected
garbage is piling up on some street corners.
* The troubles accelerated after Trump ordered the Jan. 3 abduction
and extradition of Venezuela's indicted socialist strongman Nicolas
Maduro, who essentially supplied free oil to Cuba.
* On Jan. 29, Trump threatened sanctions
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/01/addressing-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-cuba/>on
the island's other large oil supplier, Mexico.
*Between the lines:*The U.S. military's success and technical
superiority in the Maduro operation shook Cuba's leadership after
American forces suffered no losses and killed at least 32 Cuban
intelligence and military officials who were supposed to be guarding
Maduro, U.S. officials say.
* But the U.S. decision to keep Maduro's governing partners in power
—notably his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who's now acting
president — signaled to Cuban insiders that Trump and Rubio are
willing to make deals with rivals.
* Before Maduro was seized, Rubio and other Trump administration
officials and advisers were in contact with Venezuelan elites just
as they are doing now with Cuba, sources tell Axios.
* "They're looking for the next Delcy in Cuba," a source familiar with
the talks said.
*Behind the scenes: *Trump advisers have spoken with other influential
Cubans besides the younger Castro, but he's seen as the most important
figure on the island to cultivate.
* "He's the apple of his grandfather's eye," served as the dictator's
bodyguard, and also has allies running the mammoth military-business
conglomerate known as GAESA
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/horizontecubano.law.columbia.edu/news/gaesa-invisible-elephant-cubas-macroeconomic-stabilization/>,
said one source who described the Rubio-Castro conversations as
"surprisingly" friendly.
* "There's no political diatribes about the past. It's about the
future," the source said, noting**their common Cuban heritage and
accents that are the /lingua franca/ of Miami and surrounding cities.
* "Raulito could be straight out of Hialeah," the source said. "This
could be a conversation between regular guys on the streets of Miami."
*The intrigue: *As in Venezuela, analysts say
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.cubatrade.org/blog/2026/2/15/6gmgnfs8du6zv9u9lx9hjvrkiwmwig>,
they expect Trump could leave some officials in power in Cuba and not
seek a wholesale regime change because of memories
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/x.com/MarcACaputo/status/2008303956917699052>of
the disastrous de-Baathification after the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
* Some Castro family members, including Raul Castro, might not be
forced into exile under a deal with Trump, which would outrage Cuban
exiles in Miami.
* Rubio hasn't spoken with Cuba's official leader, President Miguel
Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, or other high-ranking officials.
* They're perceived by the U.S. to be communist party "apparatchiks"
unable to envision and negotiate change in Cuba, said another source
familiar with the Trump team's thinking.
*What they're saying: *Asked about the discussions between the younger
Castro and Rubio, Cuba's government sent Axios a statement issued to a
Mexican journalist disputing rumored talks between the U.S. and another
Castro family member, Alejandro Castro Espín, a senior intelligence
official.
* "There is no high-level dialogue between the government of the
United States and Cuba. There is not even dialogue at an
intermediate level. There have been exchanges of messages," the
statement said.
* "What exists are the usual conversations that have taken place over
a long period of time — or even less than that. Until a year ago, we
had regular dialogues at the senior official level with the State
Department. Today, that no longer exists."
* The State Department didn't dispute that Rubio has spoken with
Raulito Castro, but a spokesperson declined to discuss the matter or
comment.
*Reality check: *Converting Cuba into more of a U.S. ally will be a far
harder task than Venezuela, which has an intact political opposition and
more of a thriving economy when compared to Cuba's destitute
command-and-control state apparatus.
* The mutual animosity between hardliners in Havana and Miami is
deeply ingrained on both sides of the Straits of Florida.
* Last week, Cuban American Republicans in Congress asked Trump to
indict Raul Castro
<https://archive.fo/o/Zca93/https:/www.axios.com/2026/02/13/cuba-trump-raul-castro-indict>in
the 1996 shootdown of a plane carrying members of a**U.S.-based aid
group that helped Cuban rafters. The Trump administration hasn't
responded.
* Rubio has said little publicly about his discussions, but in a
Senate hearing last month he pointed out U.S. law aims for regime
change if Cuba does not free political prisoners, allow for a free
press and does not hold elections.
*Trump hasn't decided *on a course of action with Cuba.
* As part of his decision-making process, on display in Venezuela,
Trump tasks trusted advisers such as Rubio to present options to him.
* Trump's paying more attention to settling the wars in Iran and
Ukraine than handling Cuba, where Rubio is still assembling options,
a source said.
* "Cuba is right now a failed nation, and they don't even have jet
fuel to get for airplanes to take off," Trump told reporters Monday
night on Air Force One.
* "We're talking to Cuba right now ... and they should absolutely make
a deal."
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group.
View/Reply Online (#40724): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/40724
Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/117876795/21656
-=-=-
POSTING RULES & NOTES
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
#4 Do not exceed five posts a day.
-=-=-
Group Owner: [email protected]
Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy
[[email protected]]
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
