Iran Between the Russian and Chinese Models Iran is trending toward a model similar to that of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, based on militarization and rentierism, in stark contrast to the Chinese model favoured by the reformists. By Gilbert Achcar –April 28, 2026 Donald Trump claimed to pursue “regime change” in Iran, but in a manner distinct from the George W. Bush administration’s use of the term to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which was framed as bringing democracy after Saddam Hussein’s overthrow. As we have repeatedly argued in these pages, even before the joint U.S.-Israeli aggression against Iran (see, for example, “Washington Will Not Bring Democracy to Iran” [Arabic], 10 February 2026), Trump’s objective was – and remains – to replicate his Venezuelan strategy: abducting the president to pave the way for a successor willing to cooperate with Washington and its oil interests. In other words, his aim was to “change the regime’s behaviour”, not to change the regime itself. Yet the outcome of Trump’s actions in Iran has been the opposite of his intent. He has not strengthened the “pragmatic” reformist wing within the Iranian regime. These reformists argue that Iran’s best interests lie in halting its uranium enrichment program, which awkwardly sits halfway between the thresholds for nuclear weapons and peaceful nuclear energy use. The truth is that Iran does not need nuclear energy: it has abundant fossil fuels and even greater renewable energy potential, particularly solar power, of which China – its key economic partner – is the world leading producer. Reformists also contend that Iran’s policy of expanding its influence in the Arab world has failed to deter adversaries, instead triggering destructive wars involving Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah. Most crucially, they believe that economic liberalization and engagement with the West could revitalize Iran’s economy, harness its human and technological resources, and repair the fractured relationship between the government and a population increasingly hostile to the current regime. The bipartite aggression led by Washington, however, has bolstered the military wing of the Iranian regime, centred on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This wing rests on a rentier economic model fuelled by oil and gas revenues and shows little interest in developing a productive, globally integrated economy – the kind China achieved through the historic economic opening that allowed it to accomplish the greatest economic miracle in modern history. In effect, Iran is trending toward a model similar to that of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, based on militarization and rentierism, in stark contrast to the Chinese model favoured by the reformists. Full at: https://gilbert-achcar.net/iran-between-the-russian-and-chinese-models
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