I don't think Ritter ever recovered from his belief (along with ALL military 
experts) that Ukraine was going to fall in a few days/weeks. He echoed, as he 
seems to always do, Moscow propaganda. He did apologize to the Grey Zone 
audience for this. I expected that he would be somewhat more circumspect in 
echoing the nonsense from Russian Imperialism. I guess I was wrong.

STATE of the WAR:

It seems Ukraine has reversed the momentum of the war, taking more territory 
than it lost in the last 2 months. I think the Jacobin article is congruent 
with almost all military opiners at this moment. The key aspect of what is 
going on is what is called "intermediate drone assaults" on their logistics in 
the Azov Sea coastal highway that supplies both troop formations in the 
occupied territory and is a big supplier for food and fuel going to occupied 
Crimea. I should not it has literally been only the last few weeks that the 
legacy media in the US (at least) has even noted Ukrainians shifting the war to 
their side. The US based legacy media, while sympathetic to the Ukrainians, 
never talked about victories by the Ukrainian Forces and ONLY talked and 
reported on human civilian casualties, I suspect as a way to generate sympathy 
for the Ukrainian cause using a method I detest: showing the Ukrainians as 
victims and s not as fighters.

Anyway...the long range assaults by 100% Ukrainian drones has essentially 
halved ALL Russian gasoline production causes chaos in the cities and long 
lines for petrol. This has now caused the already halved export of oil to raise 
money for the Russian armed forces, to on their own, stop exporting much of 
their formally robust oil production...in order to service the needs of the 
Russian population. I haven't seen a full analysis of this from various 
Ukrainian and Russian military bloggers yet other than "it's happening".

Russia is on it's back feet now. Losing more troops than it can recruit and 
train. Will this lead the Russians to do something stupid, like expanding the 
war to NATO countries? I don't know. I generally reject ALL the claims that 
Putin wants to re-establish a neo-Warsaw Pact...he has almost no army to pull 
this off any more. He has only about 20% of the armor that existed in February 
of 2022. I don't believe he is a "threat" to Central and Western Europe at all 
at least from an actual invasion. Though, the Baltic countries could very well 
be in a rough time if shooting starts.

David


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