> >Is it true that minidisc will not be able to compete
> >when recordable DVD comes? Will it end up like DAT?
> >how long will the market for minidisc lasts u wreckon?
>
> I don't know much about recordable audio DVD, will it have a TOC
> structure that allows MD-like editing features? It seems the smallest
> size DVD will be 80mm. If it is also unprotected (i.e. not enclosed in
> a cartridge), it will be a poor competitor to MD at least in terms of
> portability.
>
> Rick
For what it's worth, I don't see a market for audio DVD products at all. The
vast majority of people have an audio setup worth less than $1000, so would
see very little (if any improvement) over a well-masterered CD. Thus it's a
bit of an audiophile niche market, which is pretty small and thus debatable
as to whether record companies will bother releasing on the format.
Even if someone buys themselves a home DVD-A player and there's actually
plenty of albums available, what happens to their existing CD players?
Personally, I have about 10 CD-based devices (from my hifi to my discman to
the boombox in the kitchen) - I don't see many people being happy about
buying music that will only play on the one device they own. That's one of
the big advantages of SACD - the format allows a CD layer to be created, so
it'll work as a regualar audio CD as well as a SACD in the right equipment.
Add to this the industry's paranoia over copying (especially after deCSS for
video DVD), which will probably mean players will ship without digital
outputs for home recording - or the high-end DACs that audiophiles tend to
own already.
CD got to the position where it is now by offering a huge improvement in
convenience (over vinyl/tape), and provided very good results even on
low-end equipment. DVD as a movie format is really taking off for the same
reason.
DAT ended up where it is because it was too expensive, didn't offer enough
extra convenience over existing formats and the quality improvement wasn't
that important to most people. I see DVD-A and SACD going the same way.
MD's got a bright future. While everything else gets more and more crippled
by restrictions on digital copying (SDMI and other schemes), we'll just hook
up our MDs to the analogue output and have a great copy. We might even see
more converts from the MP3 player crowd when they realise that flash memory
won't get significantly cheaper anytime soon. :) MD players and recorders
are cheap, more and more bookshelf systems come with MD, you can pick up an
in-car player for under 150ukp, the media costs less than a pound each, and
innovations like the Sony MXD-D3 4x copier are really pushing the
convenience angle.
MD is simply the best way to record anything - and I don't see any upcoming
formats coming close to the convenience, size or editability of our little
square discs.
--
Simon
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