New TV Models Are Model-Thin

By Mike Musgrove
Washington Post

Sunday, January 11, 2009; F01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/10/AR2009011000247_pf.html


As a professional journalist, I find the latest trend toward thinner 
TVs, like the ones shown off at this past week's Consumer Electronics 
Show in Las Vegas, troubling. You see, my retirement plans may include 
living out of a cardboard box at some point, and I'd like to know that 
there will be some housing options out there with a little more elbow room.

The famously massive trade show, which wraps up today, had long been a 
place where TV manufacturers compete for bragging rights over who has 
the biggest screen, but thin is evidently the new large. Panasonic 
showed off a prototype set that was 8.8 millimeters thick; Samsung 
Electronics showed off a TV that measured in at 6.5 millimeters. Such 
developments, of course, are great news for those eager to finally 
reclaim so many wasted cubic centimeters of space atop their 
entertainment centers.

TV sales growth is also expected to be narrow this year, an increase in 
unit sales of 2.6 percent, underperforming even the modest expectations 
for the rest of the consumer electronics industry. All told, the 
Arlington-based Consumer Electronics Association forecasts that people 
around the globe will fork over $724 billion on gadgets and electronic 
appliances this year. That's up 4.3 percent over 2008, though well below 
last year's growth of 13.7 percent.

"It feels like we've entered a period of reduced expectations, a time 
when we may be tempted to temper our optimism and scale back our 
ambition," said Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer during a low-key 
address at the tech show in which he talked up the upcoming version of 
Windows.

"But no matter what happens with the economy or how long this recession 
lasts, I believe our digital lives will only continue to get richer."

Due by this year's holiday season, Windows 7 has been described by some 
early lookers as being something like the previous release of the 
operating system, but a version "that works."

CES wasn't the only muted tech event this past week. Many attendees at 
the recent Macworld in San Francisco were underwhelmed by the latest 
that Apple has in store, such as facial recognition tools in its photo 
management software and its latest top-of-the-line laptop, priced at $2,800.

An announcement from the tech bellwether Intel on the eve of the show, 
lowering its guidance for the current financial quarter, may have helped 
cast a pall over the proceedings at the Las Vegas Convention Center, but 
the tech industry is not without bright spots. Sales of netbooks, an 
emerging class of handbag-size laptops, have jumped a whopping 160 
percent this winter. Products in this booming category, dominated by 
Acer, typically cost in the neighborhood of $400. Sales of GPS units are 
also expected to be brisk again this year.

CES is often seen as setting the trend consumers will be buying in the 
coming months, and this year's bets by the electronics makers indicate 
that they believe consumers will be interested in energy-saving 
technology and devices that can be used in cars.

But even the biggest news coming out of last year's show is a technology 
that still hasn't really gotten much traction. This time last year 
marked the end of a format war between the two tech standards seeking to 
replace the DVD as a high-definition video format. A year later, the 
victor, Blu-ray, still hasn't caught on with mainstream consumers. TV 
commercials for movie discs this time last year hawked the latest titles 
as being available on "Blu-ray," though they have lately taken to 
referring to the format as "Blu-ray high definition," as if to give 
consumers more clarity on why they're being asked to spend more money.

As the economy flailed in 2008, the CEA maintained a stance that 
consumer tech sales will hang in there because people view electronics 
as necessities these days, not as luxuries.

"It's unlikely we're going to see growth in this economy," admitted 
Steve Koenig, the CEA's director of industry analysis. "But we're 
insulated, to a degree, because technology is so embedded in our 
personal lives these days. Consumers will likely be cutting back, in 
2009, on their discretionary spending but it's unlikely they'll make 
drastic cutbacks in their technology spending."

To me, this claim rings true. As a brand-new dad, my own consumer tech 
expenses are skyrocketing, despite the shaky economy and uncertain 
world. So far, the birth of my daughter has provided me with an adequate 
excuse to buy a wireless printer, one of those fast-selling Acer 
netbooks, and a pile of blank DVDs and CDs. (Heck, I stopped by the 
Apple store on the way to the hospital to attend a workshop to learn 
tricks on how to pull video footage from one piece of Mac software to 
another.) Many more investments, such as for a gigantic external hard 
drive on which to archive my booming collection of snapshots and videos, 
are certainly on the way.

This weekend, if can get out of the house, I'm probably going to buy a 
new TV. No joke. My wife has gotten tired of our old, tiny tube set. 
I'll be looking for the thickest flat-panel set I can find, just in case 
our own digital TV "transition" comes sooner than expected.

-- 
================================
George Antunes, Political Science Dept
University of Houston; Houston, TX 77204 
Voice: 713-743-3923  Fax: 713-743-3927
Mail: antunes at uh dot edu

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