By Andi Wang, 9:40 PM on Thu May 14 2009
http://gizmodo.com/5255179/gps-may-be-less-accurate-in-2010

Due to maintenance issues of our current GPS satellites, geodesist Mike
Craymer and his team at Natural Resources Canada have calculated that
the accuracy of global positioning systems could start dropping by 2010.

According to a report released by the Government Accountability Office
in April, the Air Force ran into problems with being able to build GPS
satellites under budget and on schedule. For example, three years late
from its original launch date, the next GPS satellite will be launched
into orbit in November 2009.

With the hardware currently being used in space, the replacing and
maintaining of satellites is crucial, especially since the current
hardware we're using has been in orbit for almost two decades. If
maintenance is not kept up, then GPS accuracy will begin to drop more
and more each year.

The GAO has calculated - using reliability curves for each operational
satellite - that the probability of keeping a 24-satellite constellation
in orbit drops below 95 percent in 2010, and could drop as low as 80
percent in 2011 and 2012. And if the Air Force doesn't meet its goals
for the next-generation GPS III satellites, the probability drops to
around 10 percent in 2017.

Not to worry though, the GAO has come up with a few solutions-one of
them involving international cooperation-suggesting that the U.S. work
with the European Union on their proposed navigation satellite system,
Galileo, expected to launch in 2013.
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