http://www.zdnet.com/the-pc-is-dead-long-live-the-pc-7000005569/
PC shipments are expected to decline for the first time in over a
decade. Is it the economy, or a post-PC evolution?
For the calendar year 2012, PC shipments are expected to decline for the
first time in 11 years, according to a new study.
Not since 2001 has the worldwide industry suffered such a decline,
raising questions about whether we're weathering an economic slump -- or
watching an evolutionary change.
The study, by research firm IHS, predicts that the total PC market for
2012 will contract by 1.2 percent, to 348.7 million units shipped. Last
year, manufacturers shipped 352.8 million units.
IHS analyst Craig Stice had this to say:
There was great hope through the first half that 2012 would prove to
be a rebound year for the PC market. Now three quarters through the
year, the usual boost from the back-to-school season appears to be a
bust, and both AMD and Intel's third-quarter outlooks appear to be flat
to down. Optimism has vanished and turned to doubt, and the industry is
now training its sights on 2013 to deliver the hoped-for rebound. All
this is setting the PC market up for its first annual decline since the
dot-com bust year of 2001.
How's that for a feel good hit of the summer?
The reversed outlook blames false hope in ultrabooks, convertible
tablets and Windows 8 -- marketing bunk, niche form factor and
not-yet-shipped, respectively -- but the question is whether we're
seeing tight-fisted spending in an unstable economic environment or the
beginning of the post-PC era, where mobile is king.
To answer the economic question, we can look to 2001 for guidance.
We wrote then, in 2000:
IDC predicts that 38.8 million PCs will be sold in Europe, the
Middle East and Asia in 2000 -- a growth of 16.4 percent, down from 16.7
percent in 1999. However, it does not believe the small drop is the
start of a slide in PC sales: Internet access is still driving consumer
sales, and the free calls model being adopted by AltaVista, ntl and
Freeserve will help keep PC demand high in 2000, according to IDC
analyst Andy Brown. "This is not the beginning of a slide, sales will
continue to be strong in 2000," he said.
But although Brown predicts another healthy 12 months, by 2001 PC
technology will start to loose its appeal. He predicts PC sales will
drop "in 2001 to around 15 percent".
Brown foresees that alternative technologies such as WAP phones,
Bluetooth and interactive TV are already beginning to effect PC sales.
"There certainly is a greater focus on wireless technology. Consumer
devices and interactive TV are starting to impact the low end of the
market," he said.
Once you pick up your slackened jaw from the time warp, you'll note a
few things:
There were drivers that helped keep PCs relevant, namely the
Internet.
There were fears that other technologies would render PCs
irrelevant.
Many of those fears pertain to technologies still sitting on the
sidelines today.
With the benefit of hindsight, we know that the 2001 slowdown
preceded a decade of unfettered growth -- both for PCs and the
"alternative technologies" then-thought to compete with them.
In other words, a similar situation to what we have today. Except now,
most of our discretionary computing -- uploading family photos, sending
e-mail for personal reasons, getting driving directions, looking up
information -- has moved to mobile devices.
We may not be seeing the end of the PC -- after all, we all have a lot
of work to do at the office -- but we may be seeing the beginning of the
end of the consumer PC, or at least the prevalence for homes to have
second, third and fourth PCs scattered about the house.
In today's report, IHS generally concerns itself with the outlook for
4Q12 -- the crucial, technology-friendly, profit-generating holiday
season we're now in -- but I'm much more interested in what comes after
that. Because it appears that while there are more individuals with more
access to connected computing devices than ever before, few of those
fall under the old category of "PC."
IHS believes that a "strong rebound" could occur for the PC market in
2013, but unless there's some lucrative market somewhere on Earth that
still hasn't been tapped by multinational PC makers, I think that's
unlikely. The boom days for the PC are over, and my hunch is that PC
shipments will continue to rise in a linear fashion -- after all, more
people working need more computers which need to be replaced more
frequently because we're making technological leaps more rapidly -- but
that growth rate will pale in comparison to the rise of other connected
computing devices, which I believe will replace their disconnected
counterparts quickly and easily.
The traditional PC and mobile device never addressed the same needs, but
the mobile device addresses some needs better. And that's where we'll
see some shifting.
In the post-PC era, the PC remains viable and more vital than ever, but
as a workstation -- at least until someone invents an input method that
is superior in accuracy, speed and privacy to the lowly keyboard. But
for the discretionary computing in which we engage every day, a mobile
device will more than suffice.
"Whether a newly configured PC space could ... stand up to the powerful
smartphone and tablet markets, however, remains to be seen," IHS says. I
think they're looking at it all wrong: without question, personal
computing devices are proliferating at a rate never before seen in
history. But "PCs"? Well, it all depends on how you categorize things.
The PC is dead. Long live the PC.
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