Netflix Now Most-Watched 'Cable Network': Analyst
Says Usage Of 87 Minutes Per U.S. Sub Per Day Puts Streamer In Disney
Channel's League
By: Jeff Baumgartner
Multichannel News
Apr 12 2013 - 9:05am
http://www.multichannel.com/technology/netflix-now-most-watched-cable-network-analyst/142677
If Netflix was a cable channel it would be the most watched in terms of
daily usage, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield declared Thursday after
crunching some numbers based on a Facebook post by Netflix CEO Reed
Hastings.
"We believe Netflix streaming per sub/day is now over 87 [minutes] and,
in turn, Netflix is now likely the most watched cable network,
essentially in-line with the Disney Channel," Greenfield wrote in a blog
post (registration required) on Thursday.
He is basing much of his analysis on the Facebook post, which noted that
Netflix had exceeded 4 billion streaming hours globally for the first
quarter of 2013. Greenfield extrapolates that the number is somewhere in
the neighborhood of 4.150 billion hours.
While Hastings' comment was a global count, Greenfield's analysis
assumes that just over 88 percent of that streaming occurred within the
U.S., implying just over 1.2 billion hours or 73 billion minutes per
month. Taking it a step further, he believes Netflix ended the period
with 28.1 million U.S. subs, thus helping him reach the figure of 87
minutes per sub per day, or 43 hours per sub per month, of Netflix
streaming.
Last summer, Greenfield surmised that Netflix subscribers were streaming
79 minutes per day in, making it the seventh-most watched network for
June 2012.
While Netflix usage is on the rise, Greenfield downplayed how much of an
effect new original series are having on those numbers.
"However, it is worth pointing out that in Reed Hasting’s June 2012
Facebook post, he indicated that when House of Cards and Arrested
Development launched, streaming hours would blow away the current
run-rate," he said. While Arrested Development does not hit until May,
streaming hours are climbing per person/per day, but we would be hard
pressed to call it blowing away prior stats at this point."
Netflix has not revealed any tangible usage data on Cards since the Feb.
1 debut, when Netflix released all 13 episodes from the first season at
once.
At the B&C/Multichannel News Next TV Summit last month, Netflix chief
content officer Ted Sarandos said other intangible metrics have helped
to determine that the show is indeed a hit for Netflix.
“Seven weeks in, and we're still talking about it," Sarandos said. "It's
in the culture."
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