A few observations,

a. RIPE is next, but the date is currently unpredictable as we are in a unique 
situation where both IANA and APNIC pools are depleted, an unprecedented event, 
and the effect of this is unknown. It could be as early as June 2011 or as late 
as Q1 2012.  

b. RIPE's pool of available IPv4 addresses is shown below, but note that 
practical depletion happens once RIPE reaches 16.7 million addresses as this 
means they hit the last /8 block which has extremely restricted allocation 
policies (like APNIC):
http://www.ripe.net/internet-coordination/ipv4-exhaustion/ipv4-available-pool-graph

c. IPv6 deployment at the ISP needs to be done a phased approach. First the 
core & connectivity, then provide access over tunneling to end users, then work 
on the rest of the network to get it dual-stack end-to-end. In the meantime if 
IPv4s are in short supply (depends on the ISP) then a parallel project is 
needed to phase out dependency on public IPv4s consumption by end users.

d. Migrating from IPv4 to IPv6 and running both IP stacks in parallel, while 
having an upcoming shortage of IPv4 and a lot of IPv4 content and websites, is 
not the same as implementing pure IPv6. It is a more complex job which needs 
careful planning by the ISP. 

Depletion is real and is happening all around us. ISPs need to start v6 
migration now, dedicate staff and funding, and implement a phased approach. 

Regards,
-Ahmed




From: Lu Heng 
Sent: Saturday, April 16, 2011 6:40 PM
To: Owen DeLong 
Cc: Ahmed Abu-Abed ; menog@menog. net 
Subject: Re: [menog] Asia-Pacific IPv4 address depletion, Middle East next


Hi...."we" means RIPE 
community.http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html. It shows RIPE still 
have 4 /8 at this moment. While it still has second most amount RIRs. 


IPv6 was not that easy, pure IPv6 environment is still not practical at this 
time, as small ISP, we tested just few days ago with pure IPv6 with few 
customers, but the thing is, it just not practical in the real world now.  Many 
discussion around how and when IPv4 will become history, most of my college 
would agree later 2015 as earliest.





On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 4:18 PM, Owen DeLong <[email protected]> wrote:

  I don't think that is accurate at all. 


  1. As soon as anyone is out and forced to start deploying customers without
  native IPv4 (if said customers have IPv4 at all, it's through 
LSN/DS-Lite/NAT64)
  you have a situation where the user experience for your customers trying to
  reach those customers is degraded if you aren't providing IPv6.


  2. It will take most network operators at least 6 months and probably more 
like
  18 months to get from starting to deploy IPv6 on their backbones to being
  able to roll it out to the majority of their customers. Arguably if there's 6
  months until you have to have IPv6 to your customers, you needed to start
  12 months ago just to be on schedule.


  3. I expect RIPE will be the next RIR to run out. I expect they will run out
  probably around June or July. That's not 6 months and that's where
  most of the middle east gets their addresses.


  4. I'm not sure what you mean by "we are the last". I'm not familiar enough
  with your network to apply the proper context, so, perhaps in some way
  you may have 6 months before you face it in your own environment, but,
  what about your user's ability to reach other environments and/or the
  ability for users in other environments to have a good experience
  reaching yours?


  5. The organization who gets the last allocation in each RIR has a slight 
advantage
  over all the organizations who were in line behind them because they have
  enough IPv4 addresses to meet their needs for some (limited) amount
  of time whereas the others have no supply of addresses available to them.
  Using that advantage as an excuse to delay your IPv6 deployment is,
  IMHO, both short-sighted and self-destructive.


  Owen


  On Apr 16, 2011, at 6:53 AM, Lu Heng wrote:


    well, we are the last, we still have another 6 month to go before face it, 
correct me if I was wrong.


    On Sat, Apr 16, 2011 at 2:56 PM, Owen DeLong <[email protected]> wrote:

      Well said. 


      Owen


      On Apr 16, 2011, at 2:06 AM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote:


        Dear colleagues,

        APNIC, the IP address registry for the region stretching from Pakistan 
to Japan and down to Australia/NZ, announced yesterday it has reached the final 
/8 IPv4 address block, which is practical IPv4 depletion for most ISPs.

        From now on APNIC will highly restrict the amounts of IPv4 addresses it 
issues, with ONLY one block 1024 addresses per ISP, and this will be the last 
IPv4 address block given to each ISP.

        Expect IPv6 only services to start come up, so even if you have enough 
IPv4 addresses or thinking of implementing an IPv4 Carrier Grade NAT in your 
network, you will still need to start IPv6 migration all the way to the 
subscribers.

        The Middle East's address registry, RIPE NCC, is expected to reach a 
similar situation soon when RIPE reaches its final /8.

        Best Regards,
        -Ahmed

        Ahmed Abu-Abed, P.Eng.
        VP, IPv6 Forum Jordan
        GSM +962 777 669 100
        www.ipv6forum.org 

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    Lu




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